Research Initiative to Understand & Model State Stability: Exploiting System Dynamics

In its Preface, The 9/11 Commission Report states: “We learned that the institutions charted with protecting …national security did not understand how grave this threat can be, and did not adjust their policies, plans, and practices to deter or defeat it” (2004: xvi). Given current realities and unc...

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Main Author: Choucri, Nazli
Format: Working Paper
Language:en_US
Published: Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Engineering Systems Division 2016
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/102768
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author Choucri, Nazli
author_facet Choucri, Nazli
author_sort Choucri, Nazli
collection MIT
description In its Preface, The 9/11 Commission Report states: “We learned that the institutions charted with protecting …national security did not understand how grave this threat can be, and did not adjust their policies, plans, and practices to deter or defeat it” (2004: xvi). Given current realities and uncertainties “better preparedness” can be achieved by identifying, controlling and managing the elusive linkages and situational factors that impact state stability and fuel state decay and destruction – and hence create new threats to the nation’s security. We propose to focus on the use of system dynamics modeling techniques to help understand, measure and model the complex dynamics shaping state stability, initially for two regions. We will specifically consider the impacts of unanticipated disruptions, such as a tsunami and its aftermath, on the dynamics of the two regions. For each region, we will deliver a detailed country model, including 3-5 futures predictions in the 6-12 month range along with an analysis of conditions and casual links between predicted futures plus corresponding mitigated options.
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spelling mit-1721.1/1027682019-04-11T05:37:24Z Research Initiative to Understand & Model State Stability: Exploiting System Dynamics Choucri, Nazli In its Preface, The 9/11 Commission Report states: “We learned that the institutions charted with protecting …national security did not understand how grave this threat can be, and did not adjust their policies, plans, and practices to deter or defeat it” (2004: xvi). Given current realities and uncertainties “better preparedness” can be achieved by identifying, controlling and managing the elusive linkages and situational factors that impact state stability and fuel state decay and destruction – and hence create new threats to the nation’s security. We propose to focus on the use of system dynamics modeling techniques to help understand, measure and model the complex dynamics shaping state stability, initially for two regions. We will specifically consider the impacts of unanticipated disruptions, such as a tsunami and its aftermath, on the dynamics of the two regions. For each region, we will deliver a detailed country model, including 3-5 futures predictions in the 6-12 month range along with an analysis of conditions and casual links between predicted futures plus corresponding mitigated options. 2016-06-01T16:08:44Z 2016-06-01T16:08:44Z 2005-02 Working Paper http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/102768 en_US ESD Working Papers;ESD-WP-2005-01 application/pdf Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Engineering Systems Division
spellingShingle Choucri, Nazli
Research Initiative to Understand & Model State Stability: Exploiting System Dynamics
title Research Initiative to Understand & Model State Stability: Exploiting System Dynamics
title_full Research Initiative to Understand & Model State Stability: Exploiting System Dynamics
title_fullStr Research Initiative to Understand & Model State Stability: Exploiting System Dynamics
title_full_unstemmed Research Initiative to Understand & Model State Stability: Exploiting System Dynamics
title_short Research Initiative to Understand & Model State Stability: Exploiting System Dynamics
title_sort research initiative to understand model state stability exploiting system dynamics
url http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/102768
work_keys_str_mv AT choucrinazli researchinitiativetounderstandmodelstatestabilityexploitingsystemdynamics