Advances in Supply Chain Management: Potential to Improve Forecasting Accuracy
Forecasting is a necessity almost in any operation. However, the tools of forecasting are still primitive in view of the great strides made by research and the increasing abundance of data made possible by automatic identification technologies, such as, radio frequency identification (RFID). The rel...
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | en_US |
| Published: |
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Engineering Systems Division
2016
|
| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/102799 |
| _version_ | 1826196594402263040 |
|---|---|
| author | Datta, Shoumen Palit Austin Granger, Clive W. J. |
| author_facet | Datta, Shoumen Palit Austin Granger, Clive W. J. |
| author_sort | Datta, Shoumen Palit Austin |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Forecasting is a necessity almost in any operation. However, the tools of forecasting are still primitive in view of the great strides made by research and the increasing abundance of data made possible by automatic identification technologies, such as, radio frequency identification (RFID). The relationship of various parameters that may change and impact decisions are so abundant that any credible attempt to drive meaningful associations are in demand to deliver the value from acquired data. This paper proposes some modifications to adapt an advanced forecasting technique (GARCH) with the aim to develop it as a decision support tool applicable to a wide variety of operations including supply chain management. We have made an attempt to coalesce a few different ideas toward a “solutions” approach aimed to model volatility and in the process, perhaps, better manage risk. It is possible that industry, governments, corporations, businesses, security organizations, consulting firms and academics with deep knowledge in one or more fields, may spend the next few decades striving to synthesize one or more models of effective modus operandi to combine these ideas with other emerging concepts, tools, technologies and standards to collectively better understand, analyze and respond to uncertainty. However, the inclination to reject deep rooted ideas based on inconclusive results from pilot projects is a detrimental trend and begs to ask the question whether one can aspire to build an elephant using mouse as a model. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T10:29:46Z |
| format | Working Paper |
| id | mit-1721.1/102799 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T10:29:46Z |
| publishDate | 2016 |
| publisher | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Engineering Systems Division |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1027992019-04-12T16:24:18Z Advances in Supply Chain Management: Potential to Improve Forecasting Accuracy Datta, Shoumen Palit Austin Granger, Clive W. J. Forecasting is a necessity almost in any operation. However, the tools of forecasting are still primitive in view of the great strides made by research and the increasing abundance of data made possible by automatic identification technologies, such as, radio frequency identification (RFID). The relationship of various parameters that may change and impact decisions are so abundant that any credible attempt to drive meaningful associations are in demand to deliver the value from acquired data. This paper proposes some modifications to adapt an advanced forecasting technique (GARCH) with the aim to develop it as a decision support tool applicable to a wide variety of operations including supply chain management. We have made an attempt to coalesce a few different ideas toward a “solutions” approach aimed to model volatility and in the process, perhaps, better manage risk. It is possible that industry, governments, corporations, businesses, security organizations, consulting firms and academics with deep knowledge in one or more fields, may spend the next few decades striving to synthesize one or more models of effective modus operandi to combine these ideas with other emerging concepts, tools, technologies and standards to collectively better understand, analyze and respond to uncertainty. However, the inclination to reject deep rooted ideas based on inconclusive results from pilot projects is a detrimental trend and begs to ask the question whether one can aspire to build an elephant using mouse as a model. 2016-06-02T00:34:04Z 2016-06-02T00:34:04Z 2016-07 Working Paper http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/102799 en_US ESD Working Papers;ESD-WP-2006-11 application/pdf Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Engineering Systems Division |
| spellingShingle | Datta, Shoumen Palit Austin Granger, Clive W. J. Advances in Supply Chain Management: Potential to Improve Forecasting Accuracy |
| title | Advances in Supply Chain Management: Potential to Improve Forecasting Accuracy |
| title_full | Advances in Supply Chain Management: Potential to Improve Forecasting Accuracy |
| title_fullStr | Advances in Supply Chain Management: Potential to Improve Forecasting Accuracy |
| title_full_unstemmed | Advances in Supply Chain Management: Potential to Improve Forecasting Accuracy |
| title_short | Advances in Supply Chain Management: Potential to Improve Forecasting Accuracy |
| title_sort | advances in supply chain management potential to improve forecasting accuracy |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/102799 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT dattashoumenpalitaustin advancesinsupplychainmanagementpotentialtoimproveforecastingaccuracy AT grangerclivewj advancesinsupplychainmanagementpotentialtoimproveforecastingaccuracy |