Detecting early signs of the 2007–2008 crisis in the world trade
Since 2007, several contributions have tried to identify early-warning signals of the financial crisis. However, the vast majority of analyses has focused on financial systems and little theoretical work has been done on the economic counterpart. In the present paper we fill this gap and employ the...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | en_US |
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Nature Publishing Group
2017
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/106190 |
| _version_ | 1811096664770871296 |
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| author | Saracco, Fabio Gabrielli, Andrea Squartini, Tiziano Di Clemente, Riccardo |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Saracco, Fabio Gabrielli, Andrea Squartini, Tiziano Di Clemente, Riccardo |
| author_sort | Saracco, Fabio |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Since 2007, several contributions have tried to identify early-warning signals of the financial crisis. However, the vast majority of analyses has focused on financial systems and little theoretical work has been done on the economic counterpart. In the present paper we fill this gap and employ the theoretical tools of network theory to shed light on the response of world trade to the financial crisis of 2007 and the economic recession of 2008–2009. We have explored the evolution of the bipartite World Trade Web (WTW) across the years 1995–2010, monitoring the behavior of the system both before and after 2007. Our analysis shows early structural changes in the WTW topology: since 2003, the WTW becomes increasingly compatible with the picture of a network where correlations between countries and products are progressively lost. Moreover, the WTW structural modification can be considered as concluded in 2010, after a seemingly stationary phase of three years. We have also refined our analysis by considering specific subsets of countries and products: the most statistically significant early-warning signals are provided by the most volatile macrosectors, especially when measured on developing countries, suggesting the emerging economies as being the most sensitive ones to the global economic cycles. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T16:47:05Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/106190 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T16:47:05Z |
| publishDate | 2017 |
| publisher | Nature Publishing Group |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1061902022-09-29T21:29:19Z Detecting early signs of the 2007–2008 crisis in the world trade Saracco, Fabio Gabrielli, Andrea Squartini, Tiziano Di Clemente, Riccardo Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Di Clemente, Riccardo Since 2007, several contributions have tried to identify early-warning signals of the financial crisis. However, the vast majority of analyses has focused on financial systems and little theoretical work has been done on the economic counterpart. In the present paper we fill this gap and employ the theoretical tools of network theory to shed light on the response of world trade to the financial crisis of 2007 and the economic recession of 2008–2009. We have explored the evolution of the bipartite World Trade Web (WTW) across the years 1995–2010, monitoring the behavior of the system both before and after 2007. Our analysis shows early structural changes in the WTW topology: since 2003, the WTW becomes increasingly compatible with the picture of a network where correlations between countries and products are progressively lost. Moreover, the WTW structural modification can be considered as concluded in 2010, after a seemingly stationary phase of three years. We have also refined our analysis by considering specific subsets of countries and products: the most statistically significant early-warning signals are provided by the most volatile macrosectors, especially when measured on developing countries, suggesting the emerging economies as being the most sensitive ones to the global economic cycles. European Commission. Community Research and Development Information Service (Project GROWTHCOM 611272) Italian National Research Council (PNR Project CRISIS-Lab) European Commission. Community Research and Development Information Service (SIMPOL Grant 610704) 2017-01-04T19:04:41Z 2017-01-04T19:04:41Z 2016-07 2016-06 Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 2045-2322 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/106190 Saracco, Fabio et al. “Detecting Early Signs of the 2007–2008 Crisis in the World Trade.” Scientific Reports 6 (2016): 30286. en_US http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep30286 Scientific Reports Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ application/pdf Nature Publishing Group Nature |
| spellingShingle | Saracco, Fabio Gabrielli, Andrea Squartini, Tiziano Di Clemente, Riccardo Detecting early signs of the 2007–2008 crisis in the world trade |
| title | Detecting early signs of the 2007–2008 crisis in the world trade |
| title_full | Detecting early signs of the 2007–2008 crisis in the world trade |
| title_fullStr | Detecting early signs of the 2007–2008 crisis in the world trade |
| title_full_unstemmed | Detecting early signs of the 2007–2008 crisis in the world trade |
| title_short | Detecting early signs of the 2007–2008 crisis in the world trade |
| title_sort | detecting early signs of the 2007 2008 crisis in the world trade |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/106190 |
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