The Effect of Forecasting Accuracy on the Sizing of Energy Storage
The purpose of this research is to the problem of optimal sizing of energy storage required for compensation of wind farm generation variability. Using wind farm production data from the BPA, we assess the effect of forecast quality and economic dispatch timing on the size of storage and critical po...
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| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | en_US |
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American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME)
2017
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/109305 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7997-8962 |
| _version_ | 1811077459790004224 |
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| author | Backhaus, Scott Jaworsky, Christina A Turitsyn, Konstantin |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Mechanical Engineering |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Mechanical Engineering Backhaus, Scott Jaworsky, Christina A Turitsyn, Konstantin |
| author_sort | Backhaus, Scott |
| collection | MIT |
| description | The purpose of this research is to the problem of optimal sizing of energy storage required for compensation of wind farm generation variability. Using wind farm production data from the BPA, we assess the effect of forecast quality and economic dispatch timing on the size of storage and critical power rating required to nearly perfectly match the committed energy. We develop a Model-Predictive-Control (MPC) based operational model following NERC standard recommendations. Different forecasts are considered and compared from the storage sizing perspective. The results of our simulations can be fit by two simple relations, connecting the storage sizing with forecast error, wind variability, and the timescales of scheduling. A more accurate forecast reduces the storage sizing. However, diminishing returns are observed when the forecast error becomes comparable to natural wind variability within the commitment time interval. The proposed methodology can be extended to other systems with intermittent generation and controllable real or virtual storage. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T10:43:22Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/109305 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T10:43:22Z |
| publishDate | 2017 |
| publisher | American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1093052022-09-27T14:33:09Z The Effect of Forecasting Accuracy on the Sizing of Energy Storage Backhaus, Scott Jaworsky, Christina A Turitsyn, Konstantin Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Mechanical Engineering Jaworsky, Christina A Turitsyn, Konstantin The purpose of this research is to the problem of optimal sizing of energy storage required for compensation of wind farm generation variability. Using wind farm production data from the BPA, we assess the effect of forecast quality and economic dispatch timing on the size of storage and critical power rating required to nearly perfectly match the committed energy. We develop a Model-Predictive-Control (MPC) based operational model following NERC standard recommendations. Different forecasts are considered and compared from the storage sizing perspective. The results of our simulations can be fit by two simple relations, connecting the storage sizing with forecast error, wind variability, and the timescales of scheduling. A more accurate forecast reduces the storage sizing. However, diminishing returns are observed when the forecast error becomes comparable to natural wind variability within the commitment time interval. The proposed methodology can be extended to other systems with intermittent generation and controllable real or virtual storage. National Science Foundation (U.S.) (ECCS - 1128437) MIT International Science and Technology Initiatives (Seed Fund) Los Alamos National Laboratory MIT Skoltech Initiative 2017-05-24T13:39:25Z 2017-05-24T13:39:25Z 2014-10 Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/ConferencePaper 978-0-7918-4619-3 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/109305 Jaworsky, Christina, Konstantin Turitsyn, and Scott Backhaus. “The Effect of Forecasting Accuracy on the Sizing of Energy Storage.” ASME 2014 Dynamic Systems and Control Conference DSCC2014, 22-24 October, 2014, San Antonio, Texas, USA, ASME, 2014. © 2014 by ASME https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7997-8962 en_US http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/DSCC2014-6113 Proceedings of the ASME 2014 Dynamic Systems and Control Conference DSCC2014 Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use. application/pdf American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) |
| spellingShingle | Backhaus, Scott Jaworsky, Christina A Turitsyn, Konstantin The Effect of Forecasting Accuracy on the Sizing of Energy Storage |
| title | The Effect of Forecasting Accuracy on the Sizing of Energy Storage |
| title_full | The Effect of Forecasting Accuracy on the Sizing of Energy Storage |
| title_fullStr | The Effect of Forecasting Accuracy on the Sizing of Energy Storage |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Effect of Forecasting Accuracy on the Sizing of Energy Storage |
| title_short | The Effect of Forecasting Accuracy on the Sizing of Energy Storage |
| title_sort | effect of forecasting accuracy on the sizing of energy storage |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/109305 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7997-8962 |
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