On the factors affecting trends and variability in tropical cyclone potential intensity
Tropical cyclone potential intensity (V[subscript p]) is controlled by thermodynamic air-sea disequilibrium and thermodynamic efficiency, which is a function of the sea surface temperature and the tropical cyclone’s outflow temperature. Observed trends and variability in V[subscript p] in each ocean...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | en_US |
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American Geophysical Union (AGU)
2017
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/109503 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2194-8709 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2066-2082 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2020-7581 |
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| author | Wing, Allison A. Emanuel, Kerry Andrew Solomon, Susan |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Chemistry |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Chemistry Wing, Allison A. Emanuel, Kerry Andrew Solomon, Susan |
| author_sort | Wing, Allison A. |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Tropical cyclone potential intensity (V[subscript p]) is controlled by thermodynamic air-sea disequilibrium and thermodynamic efficiency, which is a function of the sea surface temperature and the tropical cyclone’s outflow temperature. Observed trends and variability in V[subscript p] in each ocean basin are decomposed into contributions from these two components. Robustly detectable trends are found only in the North
Atlantic, where tropical tropopause layer (TTL) cooling contributes up to a third of the increase in Vp. The contribution from disequilibrium dominates the few statistically significant V[subscript p] trends in the other basins. The results are sensitive to the data set used and details of the V[subscript p] calculation, reflecting uncertainties in
TTL temperature trends and the difficulty of estimating V[subscript p] and its components. We also find that 20–71% of the interannual variability in V[subscript p] is linked to the TTL, with correlations between detrended time series of
thermodynamic efficiency and V[subscript p] occurring over all ocean basins. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T15:49:34Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/109503 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T15:49:34Z |
| publishDate | 2017 |
| publisher | American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1095032022-10-02T04:21:56Z On the factors affecting trends and variability in tropical cyclone potential intensity Wing, Allison A. Emanuel, Kerry Andrew Solomon, Susan Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Chemistry Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate Emanuel, Kerry Wing, Allison A. Emanuel, Kerry Andrew Solomon, Susan Tropical cyclone potential intensity (V[subscript p]) is controlled by thermodynamic air-sea disequilibrium and thermodynamic efficiency, which is a function of the sea surface temperature and the tropical cyclone’s outflow temperature. Observed trends and variability in V[subscript p] in each ocean basin are decomposed into contributions from these two components. Robustly detectable trends are found only in the North Atlantic, where tropical tropopause layer (TTL) cooling contributes up to a third of the increase in Vp. The contribution from disequilibrium dominates the few statistically significant V[subscript p] trends in the other basins. The results are sensitive to the data set used and details of the V[subscript p] calculation, reflecting uncertainties in TTL temperature trends and the difficulty of estimating V[subscript p] and its components. We also find that 20–71% of the interannual variability in V[subscript p] is linked to the TTL, with correlations between detrended time series of thermodynamic efficiency and V[subscript p] occurring over all ocean basins. National Science Foundation (U.S.) (grant AGS-1342810) National Science Foundation (U.S.) (AGS Postdoctoral Research Fellowship under award 1433251) 2017-06-01T16:58:48Z 2017-06-01T16:58:48Z 2015-10 2015-09 Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 00948276 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/109503 Wing, Allison A., Kerry Emanuel, and Susan Solomon. “On the Factors Affecting Trends and Variability in Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensity.” Geophysical Research Letters 42, no. 20 (October 19, 2015): 8669–8677. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2194-8709 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2066-2082 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2020-7581 en_US http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2015gl066145 Geophysical Research Letters Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use. application/pdf American Geophysical Union (AGU) Prof. Emanuel via Chris Sherratt |
| spellingShingle | Wing, Allison A. Emanuel, Kerry Andrew Solomon, Susan On the factors affecting trends and variability in tropical cyclone potential intensity |
| title | On the factors affecting trends and variability in tropical cyclone potential intensity |
| title_full | On the factors affecting trends and variability in tropical cyclone potential intensity |
| title_fullStr | On the factors affecting trends and variability in tropical cyclone potential intensity |
| title_full_unstemmed | On the factors affecting trends and variability in tropical cyclone potential intensity |
| title_short | On the factors affecting trends and variability in tropical cyclone potential intensity |
| title_sort | on the factors affecting trends and variability in tropical cyclone potential intensity |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/109503 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2194-8709 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2066-2082 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2020-7581 |
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