Centuries of thermal sea-level rise due to anthropogenic emissions of short-lived greenhouse gases
Mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gases with short lifetimes (order of a year to decades) can contribute to limiting warming, but less attention has been paid to their impacts on longer-term sea-level rise. We show that short-lived greenhouse gases contribute to sea-level rise through thermal e...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | en_US |
| Published: |
National Academy of Sciences (U.S.)
2017
|
| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/109913 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2020-7581 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2422-0887 |
| _version_ | 1811077620252540928 |
|---|---|
| author | Zickfeld, Kirsten Solomon, Susan Gilford, Daniel Michael |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Zickfeld, Kirsten Solomon, Susan Gilford, Daniel Michael |
| author_sort | Zickfeld, Kirsten |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gases with short lifetimes (order of a year to decades) can contribute to limiting warming, but less attention has been paid to their impacts on longer-term sea-level rise. We show that short-lived greenhouse gases contribute to sea-level rise through thermal expansion (TSLR) over much longer time scales than their atmospheric lifetimes. For example, at least half of the TSLR due to increases in methane is expected to remain present for more than 200 y, even if anthropogenic emissions cease altogether, despite the 10-y atmospheric lifetime of this gas. Chlorofluorocarbons and hydrochlorofluorocarbons have already been phased out under the Montreal Protocol due to concerns about ozone depletion and provide an illustration of how emission reductions avoid multiple centuries of future TSLR. We examine the “world avoided” by the Montreal Protocol by showing that if these gases had instead been eliminated in 2050, additional TSLR of up to about 14 cm would be expected in the 21st century, with continuing contributions lasting more than 500 y. Emissions of the hydrofluorocarbon substitutes in the next half-century would also contribute to centuries of future TSLR. Consideration of the time scales of reversibility of TSLR due to short-lived substances provides insights into physical processes: sea-level rise is often assumed to follow air temperature, but this assumption holds only for TSLR when temperatures are increasing. We present a more complete formulation that is accurate even when atmospheric temperatures are stable or decreasing due to reductions in short-lived gases or net radiative forcing. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T10:45:55Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/109913 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T10:45:55Z |
| publishDate | 2017 |
| publisher | National Academy of Sciences (U.S.) |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1099132022-09-27T14:50:51Z Centuries of thermal sea-level rise due to anthropogenic emissions of short-lived greenhouse gases Zickfeld, Kirsten Solomon, Susan Gilford, Daniel Michael Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Solomon, Susan Solomon, Susan Gilford, Daniel Michael Mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gases with short lifetimes (order of a year to decades) can contribute to limiting warming, but less attention has been paid to their impacts on longer-term sea-level rise. We show that short-lived greenhouse gases contribute to sea-level rise through thermal expansion (TSLR) over much longer time scales than their atmospheric lifetimes. For example, at least half of the TSLR due to increases in methane is expected to remain present for more than 200 y, even if anthropogenic emissions cease altogether, despite the 10-y atmospheric lifetime of this gas. Chlorofluorocarbons and hydrochlorofluorocarbons have already been phased out under the Montreal Protocol due to concerns about ozone depletion and provide an illustration of how emission reductions avoid multiple centuries of future TSLR. We examine the “world avoided” by the Montreal Protocol by showing that if these gases had instead been eliminated in 2050, additional TSLR of up to about 14 cm would be expected in the 21st century, with continuing contributions lasting more than 500 y. Emissions of the hydrofluorocarbon substitutes in the next half-century would also contribute to centuries of future TSLR. Consideration of the time scales of reversibility of TSLR due to short-lived substances provides insights into physical processes: sea-level rise is often assumed to follow air temperature, but this assumption holds only for TSLR when temperatures are increasing. We present a more complete formulation that is accurate even when atmospheric temperatures are stable or decreasing due to reductions in short-lived gases or net radiative forcing. 2017-06-15T19:27:10Z 2017-06-15T19:27:10Z 2016-12 2016-07 Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 0027-8424 1091-6490 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/109913 Zickfeld, Kirsten; Solomon, Susan andGilford, Daniel M. “Centuries of Thermal Sea-Level Rise Due to Anthropogenic Emissions of Short-Lived Greenhouse Gases.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114, no. 4 (January 2017): 657–662 © 2017 National Academy of Sciences https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2020-7581 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2422-0887 en_US http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1612066114 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use. application/pdf National Academy of Sciences (U.S.) PNAS |
| spellingShingle | Zickfeld, Kirsten Solomon, Susan Gilford, Daniel Michael Centuries of thermal sea-level rise due to anthropogenic emissions of short-lived greenhouse gases |
| title | Centuries of thermal sea-level rise due to anthropogenic emissions of short-lived greenhouse gases |
| title_full | Centuries of thermal sea-level rise due to anthropogenic emissions of short-lived greenhouse gases |
| title_fullStr | Centuries of thermal sea-level rise due to anthropogenic emissions of short-lived greenhouse gases |
| title_full_unstemmed | Centuries of thermal sea-level rise due to anthropogenic emissions of short-lived greenhouse gases |
| title_short | Centuries of thermal sea-level rise due to anthropogenic emissions of short-lived greenhouse gases |
| title_sort | centuries of thermal sea level rise due to anthropogenic emissions of short lived greenhouse gases |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/109913 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2020-7581 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2422-0887 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT zickfeldkirsten centuriesofthermalsealevelriseduetoanthropogenicemissionsofshortlivedgreenhousegases AT solomonsusan centuriesofthermalsealevelriseduetoanthropogenicemissionsofshortlivedgreenhousegases AT gilforddanielmichael centuriesofthermalsealevelriseduetoanthropogenicemissionsofshortlivedgreenhousegases |