Uncertainty in modeled and observed climate change impacts on American Midwest hydrology
An important potential consequence of climate change is the modification of the water cycle in agricultural areas, such as the American Midwest. Soil moisture is the integrand of the water cycle, reflecting dynamics of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff in space and time, and a key determ...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | en_US |
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American Geophysical Union
2017
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/110300 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7120-704X |
| _version_ | 1811069734091751424 |
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| author | Winter, Jonathan M. Yeh, Pat J.-F. Fu, Xiaojing Eltahir, Elfatih A. B. |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Winter, Jonathan M. Yeh, Pat J.-F. Fu, Xiaojing Eltahir, Elfatih A. B. |
| author_sort | Winter, Jonathan M. |
| collection | MIT |
| description | An important potential consequence of climate change is the modification of the water cycle in agricultural areas, such as the American Midwest. Soil moisture is the integrand of the water cycle, reflecting dynamics of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff in space and time, and a key determinant of yield. Here we present projected changes in the hydrologic cycle over a representative area of the American Midwest from regional climate model experiments that sample a range of model configurations. While significant summer soil moisture drying is predicted in some ensemble members, others predict soil moisture wetting, with the sign of soil moisture response strongly influenced by choice of boundary conditions. To resolve the contradictory predictions of soil moisture across ensemble members, we assess an extensive and unique observational data set of the water budget in Illinois. No statistically significant monotonic trends are found in observed soil moisture, precipitation, streamflow, groundwater level, or 2 m air temperature over a recent 26 year period (soil moisture 25 years). Based on this analysis of model simulations and observations, we conclude that the sign of climate change impacts on the regional hydrology of the American Midwest remains uncertain. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T08:15:05Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/110300 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T08:15:05Z |
| publishDate | 2017 |
| publisher | American Geophysical Union |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1103002022-09-30T08:37:49Z Uncertainty in modeled and observed climate change impacts on American Midwest hydrology Winter, Jonathan M. Yeh, Pat J.-F. Fu, Xiaojing Eltahir, Elfatih A. B. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Fu, Xiaojing Eltahir, Elfatih A. B. An important potential consequence of climate change is the modification of the water cycle in agricultural areas, such as the American Midwest. Soil moisture is the integrand of the water cycle, reflecting dynamics of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff in space and time, and a key determinant of yield. Here we present projected changes in the hydrologic cycle over a representative area of the American Midwest from regional climate model experiments that sample a range of model configurations. While significant summer soil moisture drying is predicted in some ensemble members, others predict soil moisture wetting, with the sign of soil moisture response strongly influenced by choice of boundary conditions. To resolve the contradictory predictions of soil moisture across ensemble members, we assess an extensive and unique observational data set of the water budget in Illinois. No statistically significant monotonic trends are found in observed soil moisture, precipitation, streamflow, groundwater level, or 2 m air temperature over a recent 26 year period (soil moisture 25 years). Based on this analysis of model simulations and observations, we conclude that the sign of climate change impacts on the regional hydrology of the American Midwest remains uncertain. National Science Foundation (U.S.) 2017-06-27T14:11:33Z 2017-06-27T14:11:33Z 2015-04 2014-06 Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 0043-1397 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/110300 Winter, Jonathan M. et al. “Uncertainty in Modeled and Observed Climate Change Impacts on American Midwest Hydrology: Climate Change Impacts on American Midwest Hydrology.” Water Resources Research 51.5 (2015): 3635–3646. © 2015 American Geophysical Union https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7120-704X en_US http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2014wr016056 Water Resources Research Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use. application/pdf American Geophysical Union MIT Web Domain |
| spellingShingle | Winter, Jonathan M. Yeh, Pat J.-F. Fu, Xiaojing Eltahir, Elfatih A. B. Uncertainty in modeled and observed climate change impacts on American Midwest hydrology |
| title | Uncertainty in modeled and observed climate change impacts on American Midwest hydrology |
| title_full | Uncertainty in modeled and observed climate change impacts on American Midwest hydrology |
| title_fullStr | Uncertainty in modeled and observed climate change impacts on American Midwest hydrology |
| title_full_unstemmed | Uncertainty in modeled and observed climate change impacts on American Midwest hydrology |
| title_short | Uncertainty in modeled and observed climate change impacts on American Midwest hydrology |
| title_sort | uncertainty in modeled and observed climate change impacts on american midwest hydrology |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/110300 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7120-704X |
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