Comparing Tropospheric Warming in Climate Models and Satellite Data
Updated and improved satellite retrievals of the temperature of the mid-to-upper troposphere (TMT) are used to address key questions about the size and significance of TMT trends, agreement with model-derived TMT values, and whether models and satellite data show similar vertical profiles of warming...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | en_US |
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American Meteorological Society
2017
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/111171 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2020-7581 |
| _version_ | 1826194483854704640 |
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| author | Santer, Benjamin D. Solomon, Susan Pallotta, Giuliana Mears, Carl Po-Chedley, Stephen Fu, Qiang Wentz, Frank Zou, Cheng-Zhi Painter, Jeffrey Cvijanovic, Ivana Bonfils, Céline |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Santer, Benjamin D. Solomon, Susan Pallotta, Giuliana Mears, Carl Po-Chedley, Stephen Fu, Qiang Wentz, Frank Zou, Cheng-Zhi Painter, Jeffrey Cvijanovic, Ivana Bonfils, Céline |
| author_sort | Santer, Benjamin D. |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Updated and improved satellite retrievals of the temperature of the mid-to-upper troposphere (TMT) are used to address key questions about the size and significance of TMT trends, agreement with model-derived TMT values, and whether models and satellite data show similar vertical profiles of warming. A recent study claimed that TMT trends over 1979 and 2015 are 3 times larger in climate models than in satellite data but did not correct for the contribution TMT trends receive from stratospheric cooling. Here, it is shown that the average ratio of modeled and observed TMT trends is sensitive to both satellite data uncertainties and model–data differences in stratospheric cooling. When the impact of lower-stratospheric cooling on TMT is accounted for, and when the most recent versions of satellite datasets are used, the previously claimed ratio of three between simulated and observed near-global TMT trends is reduced to approximately 1.7. Next, the validity of the statement that satellite data show no significant tropospheric warming over the last 18 years is assessed. This claim is not supported by the current analysis: in five out of six corrected satellite TMT records, significant global-scale tropospheric warming has occurred within the last 18 years. Finally, long-standing concerns are examined regarding discrepancies in modeled and observed vertical profiles of warming in the tropical atmosphere. It is shown that amplification of tropical warming between the lower and mid-to-upper troposphere is now in close agreement in the average of 37 climate models and in one updated satellite record. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T09:56:48Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/111171 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T09:56:48Z |
| publishDate | 2017 |
| publisher | American Meteorological Society |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1111712022-09-30T17:54:07Z Comparing Tropospheric Warming in Climate Models and Satellite Data Santer, Benjamin D. Solomon, Susan Pallotta, Giuliana Mears, Carl Po-Chedley, Stephen Fu, Qiang Wentz, Frank Zou, Cheng-Zhi Painter, Jeffrey Cvijanovic, Ivana Bonfils, Céline Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Solomon, Susan Updated and improved satellite retrievals of the temperature of the mid-to-upper troposphere (TMT) are used to address key questions about the size and significance of TMT trends, agreement with model-derived TMT values, and whether models and satellite data show similar vertical profiles of warming. A recent study claimed that TMT trends over 1979 and 2015 are 3 times larger in climate models than in satellite data but did not correct for the contribution TMT trends receive from stratospheric cooling. Here, it is shown that the average ratio of modeled and observed TMT trends is sensitive to both satellite data uncertainties and model–data differences in stratospheric cooling. When the impact of lower-stratospheric cooling on TMT is accounted for, and when the most recent versions of satellite datasets are used, the previously claimed ratio of three between simulated and observed near-global TMT trends is reduced to approximately 1.7. Next, the validity of the statement that satellite data show no significant tropospheric warming over the last 18 years is assessed. This claim is not supported by the current analysis: in five out of six corrected satellite TMT records, significant global-scale tropospheric warming has occurred within the last 18 years. Finally, long-standing concerns are examined regarding discrepancies in modeled and observed vertical profiles of warming in the tropical atmosphere. It is shown that amplification of tropical warming between the lower and mid-to-upper troposphere is now in close agreement in the average of 37 climate models and in one updated satellite record. 2017-09-12T13:18:33Z 2017-09-12T13:18:33Z 2016-12 2016-04 Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 0894-8755 1520-0442 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/111171 Santer, Benjamin D. et al. “Comparing Tropospheric Warming in Climate Models and Satellite Data.” Journal of Climate 30, 1 (January 2017): 373–392 © 2017 American Meteorological Society https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2020-7581 en_US http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0333.1 Journal of Climate Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use. application/pdf American Meteorological Society American Meteorological Society |
| spellingShingle | Santer, Benjamin D. Solomon, Susan Pallotta, Giuliana Mears, Carl Po-Chedley, Stephen Fu, Qiang Wentz, Frank Zou, Cheng-Zhi Painter, Jeffrey Cvijanovic, Ivana Bonfils, Céline Comparing Tropospheric Warming in Climate Models and Satellite Data |
| title | Comparing Tropospheric Warming in Climate Models and Satellite Data |
| title_full | Comparing Tropospheric Warming in Climate Models and Satellite Data |
| title_fullStr | Comparing Tropospheric Warming in Climate Models and Satellite Data |
| title_full_unstemmed | Comparing Tropospheric Warming in Climate Models and Satellite Data |
| title_short | Comparing Tropospheric Warming in Climate Models and Satellite Data |
| title_sort | comparing tropospheric warming in climate models and satellite data |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/111171 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2020-7581 |
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