A stochastic techno-economic comparison of alternative jet fuel production pathways
Thesis: S.M. in Technology and Policy, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of Engineering, Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Technology and Policy Program, 2017.
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | eng |
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Massachusetts Institute of Technology
2017
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/111238 |
| _version_ | 1826193143258677248 |
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| author | Bann, Seamus J |
| author2 | Steven R. H. Barrett. |
| author_facet | Steven R. H. Barrett. Bann, Seamus J |
| author_sort | Bann, Seamus J |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Thesis: S.M. in Technology and Policy, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of Engineering, Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Technology and Policy Program, 2017. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T09:34:23Z |
| format | Thesis |
| id | mit-1721.1/111238 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | eng |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T09:34:23Z |
| publishDate | 2017 |
| publisher | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1112382022-01-31T17:05:01Z A stochastic techno-economic comparison of alternative jet fuel production pathways Bann, Seamus J Steven R. H. Barrett. Technology and Policy Program. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Engineering Systems Division Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Institute for Data, Systems, and Society Technology and Policy Program Institute for Data, Systems, and Society. Engineering Systems Division. Technology and Policy Program. Thesis: S.M. in Technology and Policy, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of Engineering, Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Technology and Policy Program, 2017. This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections. Cataloged from student-submitted PDF version of thesis. Includes bibliographical references. Thesis: S.M., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2017 This study quantifies and compares the costs of production for six alternative jet fuel pathways using consistent financial and technical assumptions. Uncertainty was propagated through the analysis using Monte Carlo simulations. The six processes assessed were hydroprocessed ester and fatty acids (HEFA) using soybean oil, yellow grease, and tallow; advanced fermentation (AF) using corn grain, sugarcane, and herbaceous biomass; conventional gasification and Fischer-Tropsch (FT) using municipal solid waste; aqueous phase processing (APP) using woody biomass; hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) using woody biomass; and fast pyrolysis and hydroprocessing (FPH) using corn stover. The results indicate that none of the six processes would be profitable in the absence of government incentives, with HEFA using yellow grease, HEFA using tallow, and FT revealing the lowest mean jet fuel prices at $0.91/liter ($0.66/liter to $1.24/liter), $1.06/liter ($0.79/liter to $1.42/liter), and $1.15/liter ($0.95/liter to $1.39/liter), respectively. The highest mean NPV was the NPV calculated for HEFA yellow grease with a mean value (in $B) of -0.112 (95% range of -0.412 to 0.179), followed by HEFA tallow with -0.202 (-0.517 to 0.100) and FT with -0.210 (-0.424 to 0.033). This study also quantifies plant performance in the United States with a policy analysis. The alternative fuel production models were used to examine the economic viability of each pathway under a variety of existing and potential regulatory scenarios. Results indicate that some pathways could achieve positive NPV with relatively high likelihood under existing policy supports, with HEFA and FPH revealing the highest probability of positive NPV at 94.9% and 99.7%, respectively, in the best-case scenario. by Seamus J. Bann. S.M. in Technology and Policy S.M. 2017-09-15T14:20:42Z 2017-09-15T14:20:42Z 2017 2017 Thesis http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/111238 1003284585 eng MIT theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed, downloaded, or printed from this source but further reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582 99 pages application/pdf Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| spellingShingle | Institute for Data, Systems, and Society. Engineering Systems Division. Technology and Policy Program. Bann, Seamus J A stochastic techno-economic comparison of alternative jet fuel production pathways |
| title | A stochastic techno-economic comparison of alternative jet fuel production pathways |
| title_full | A stochastic techno-economic comparison of alternative jet fuel production pathways |
| title_fullStr | A stochastic techno-economic comparison of alternative jet fuel production pathways |
| title_full_unstemmed | A stochastic techno-economic comparison of alternative jet fuel production pathways |
| title_short | A stochastic techno-economic comparison of alternative jet fuel production pathways |
| title_sort | stochastic techno economic comparison of alternative jet fuel production pathways |
| topic | Institute for Data, Systems, and Society. Engineering Systems Division. Technology and Policy Program. |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/111238 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT bannseamusj astochastictechnoeconomiccomparisonofalternativejetfuelproductionpathways AT bannseamusj stochastictechnoeconomiccomparisonofalternativejetfuelproductionpathways |