Secular Stagnation? The Effect of Aging on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation
Several recent theories emphasize the negative effects of an aging population on economic growth, either because of the lower labor force participation and productivity of older workers or because aging will create an excess of savings over desired investment, leading to secular stagnation. We show...
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| Format: | Article |
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American Economic Association
2018
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/113580 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0908-7491 |
| _version_ | 1826194956777160704 |
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| author | Restrepo, Pascual Acemoglu, K. Daron |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Economics |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Economics Restrepo, Pascual Acemoglu, K. Daron |
| author_sort | Restrepo, Pascual |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Several recent theories emphasize the negative effects of an aging population on economic growth, either because of the lower labor force participation and productivity of older workers or because aging will create an excess of savings over desired investment, leading to secular stagnation. We show that there is no such negative relationship in the data. If anything, countries experiencing more rapid aging have grown more in recent decades. We suggest that this counterintuitive finding might reflect the more rapid adoption of automation technologies in countries undergoing more pronounced demographic changes and provide evidence and theoretical underpinnings for this argument. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T10:04:29Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/113580 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T10:04:29Z |
| publishDate | 2018 |
| publisher | American Economic Association |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1135802022-09-30T18:46:38Z Secular Stagnation? The Effect of Aging on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation Restrepo, Pascual Acemoglu, K. Daron Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Economics Acemoglu, K. Daron Several recent theories emphasize the negative effects of an aging population on economic growth, either because of the lower labor force participation and productivity of older workers or because aging will create an excess of savings over desired investment, leading to secular stagnation. We show that there is no such negative relationship in the data. If anything, countries experiencing more rapid aging have grown more in recent decades. We suggest that this counterintuitive finding might reflect the more rapid adoption of automation technologies in countries undergoing more pronounced demographic changes and provide evidence and theoretical underpinnings for this argument. 2018-02-12T16:28:37Z 2018-02-12T16:28:37Z 2017-05 2018-02-07T18:30:25Z Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 0002-8282 1944-7981 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/113580 Acemoglu, Daron and Restrepo, Pascual. “Secular Stagnation? The Effect of Aging on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation.” American Economic Review 107, 5 (May 2017): 174–179 © 2017 American Economic Association https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0908-7491 http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/AER.P20171101 American Economic Review Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use. application/pdf American Economic Association American Economic Association |
| spellingShingle | Restrepo, Pascual Acemoglu, K. Daron Secular Stagnation? The Effect of Aging on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation |
| title | Secular Stagnation? The Effect of Aging on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation |
| title_full | Secular Stagnation? The Effect of Aging on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation |
| title_fullStr | Secular Stagnation? The Effect of Aging on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Secular Stagnation? The Effect of Aging on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation |
| title_short | Secular Stagnation? The Effect of Aging on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation |
| title_sort | secular stagnation the effect of aging on economic growth in the age of automation |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/113580 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0908-7491 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT restrepopascual secularstagnationtheeffectofagingoneconomicgrowthintheageofautomation AT acemoglukdaron secularstagnationtheeffectofagingoneconomicgrowthintheageofautomation |