Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the twenty-first century
During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Nor...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Springer Berlin Heidelberg
2018
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/114534 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5533-6570 |
| _version_ | 1811081183988023296 |
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| author | Groisman, Pavel Shugart, Herman Kicklighter, David Henebry, Geoffrey Tchebakova, Nadezhda Maksyutov, Shamil Monier, Erwan Gutman, Garik Gulev, Sergey Qi, Jiaguo Prishchepov, Alexander Kukavskaya, Elena Porfiriev, Boris Shiklomanov, Alexander Loboda, Tatiana Shiklomanov, Nikolay Nghiem, Son Bergen, Kathleen Albrechtová, Jana Chen, Jiquan Shahgedanova, Maria Shvidenko, Anatoly Speranskaya, Nina Soja, Amber de Beurs, Kirsten Bulygina, Olga McCarty, Jessica Zhuang, Qianlai Zolina, Olga |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Global Change Science |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Global Change Science Groisman, Pavel Shugart, Herman Kicklighter, David Henebry, Geoffrey Tchebakova, Nadezhda Maksyutov, Shamil Monier, Erwan Gutman, Garik Gulev, Sergey Qi, Jiaguo Prishchepov, Alexander Kukavskaya, Elena Porfiriev, Boris Shiklomanov, Alexander Loboda, Tatiana Shiklomanov, Nikolay Nghiem, Son Bergen, Kathleen Albrechtová, Jana Chen, Jiquan Shahgedanova, Maria Shvidenko, Anatoly Speranskaya, Nina Soja, Amber de Beurs, Kirsten Bulygina, Olga McCarty, Jessica Zhuang, Qianlai Zolina, Olga |
| author_sort | Groisman, Pavel |
| collection | MIT |
| description | During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies co-designed with regional decision-makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base to support the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge. It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFI science questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are briefly justified. These foci include warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme and inclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes in the biosphere; pressures on land use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmental change; and quantification of Northern Eurasia’s role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks between the Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphere essential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large-scale water withdrawals, land use, and governance change) and potentially restrict or provide new opportunities for future human activities. Therefore, we propose that integrated assessment models are needed as the final stage of global change assessment. The overarching goal of this NEFI modeling effort will enable evaluation of economic decisions in response to changing environmental conditions and justification of mitigation and adaptation efforts. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T11:42:28Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/114534 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T11:42:28Z |
| publishDate | 2018 |
| publisher | Springer Berlin Heidelberg |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1145342022-09-27T21:23:46Z Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the twenty-first century Groisman, Pavel Shugart, Herman Kicklighter, David Henebry, Geoffrey Tchebakova, Nadezhda Maksyutov, Shamil Monier, Erwan Gutman, Garik Gulev, Sergey Qi, Jiaguo Prishchepov, Alexander Kukavskaya, Elena Porfiriev, Boris Shiklomanov, Alexander Loboda, Tatiana Shiklomanov, Nikolay Nghiem, Son Bergen, Kathleen Albrechtová, Jana Chen, Jiquan Shahgedanova, Maria Shvidenko, Anatoly Speranskaya, Nina Soja, Amber de Beurs, Kirsten Bulygina, Olga McCarty, Jessica Zhuang, Qianlai Zolina, Olga Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Global Change Science Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Joint Program on the Science & Policy of Global Change Monier, Erwan During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies co-designed with regional decision-makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base to support the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge. It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFI science questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are briefly justified. These foci include warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme and inclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes in the biosphere; pressures on land use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmental change; and quantification of Northern Eurasia’s role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks between the Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphere essential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large-scale water withdrawals, land use, and governance change) and potentially restrict or provide new opportunities for future human activities. Therefore, we propose that integrated assessment models are needed as the final stage of global change assessment. The overarching goal of this NEFI modeling effort will enable evaluation of economic decisions in response to changing environmental conditions and justification of mitigation and adaptation efforts. 2018-04-03T20:03:34Z 2018-04-03T20:03:34Z 2017-12 2017-11 2017-12-28T04:22:27Z Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 2197-4284 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/114534 Groisman, Pavel et al. "Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the twenty-first century." Progress in Earth and Planetary Science 4 (December 2017): 41 © 2017 The Author(s) https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5533-6570 en http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s40645-017-0154-5 Progress in Earth and Planetary Science Creative Commons Attribution http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ The Author(s). application/pdf Springer Berlin Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg |
| spellingShingle | Groisman, Pavel Shugart, Herman Kicklighter, David Henebry, Geoffrey Tchebakova, Nadezhda Maksyutov, Shamil Monier, Erwan Gutman, Garik Gulev, Sergey Qi, Jiaguo Prishchepov, Alexander Kukavskaya, Elena Porfiriev, Boris Shiklomanov, Alexander Loboda, Tatiana Shiklomanov, Nikolay Nghiem, Son Bergen, Kathleen Albrechtová, Jana Chen, Jiquan Shahgedanova, Maria Shvidenko, Anatoly Speranskaya, Nina Soja, Amber de Beurs, Kirsten Bulygina, Olga McCarty, Jessica Zhuang, Qianlai Zolina, Olga Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the twenty-first century |
| title | Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the twenty-first century |
| title_full | Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the twenty-first century |
| title_fullStr | Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the twenty-first century |
| title_full_unstemmed | Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the twenty-first century |
| title_short | Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the twenty-first century |
| title_sort | northern eurasia future initiative nefi facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the twenty first century |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/114534 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5533-6570 |
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