The Role of Inner-Core Moisture in Tropical Cyclone Predictability and Practical Forecast Skill
Errors in tropical cyclone intensity forecasts are dominated by initial-condition errors out to at least a few days. Initialization errors are usually thought of in terms of position and intensity, but here it is shown that growth of intensity error is at least as sensitive to the specification of i...
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Article |
| Published: |
American Meteorological Society
2018
|
| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/114570 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2066-2082 |
| _version_ | 1826198810573930496 |
|---|---|
| author | Zhang, Fuqing Emanuel, Kerry Andrew |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Zhang, Fuqing Emanuel, Kerry Andrew |
| author_sort | Zhang, Fuqing |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Errors in tropical cyclone intensity forecasts are dominated by initial-condition errors out to at least a few days. Initialization errors are usually thought of in terms of position and intensity, but here it is shown that growth of intensity error is at least as sensitive to the specification of inner-core moisture as to that of the wind field. Implications of this finding for tropical cyclone observational strategies and for overall predictability of storm intensity are discussed. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T11:10:22Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/114570 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T11:10:22Z |
| publishDate | 2018 |
| publisher | American Meteorological Society |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1145702022-09-27T17:37:14Z The Role of Inner-Core Moisture in Tropical Cyclone Predictability and Practical Forecast Skill Zhang, Fuqing Emanuel, Kerry Andrew Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Lorenz Center (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) Emanuel, Kerry Andrew Errors in tropical cyclone intensity forecasts are dominated by initial-condition errors out to at least a few days. Initialization errors are usually thought of in terms of position and intensity, but here it is shown that growth of intensity error is at least as sensitive to the specification of inner-core moisture as to that of the wind field. Implications of this finding for tropical cyclone observational strategies and for overall predictability of storm intensity are discussed. United States. Office of Naval Research (Grant N000141410062) 2018-04-05T15:39:44Z 2018-04-05T15:39:44Z 2017-07 2017-04 2018-03-30T17:58:18Z Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 0022-4928 1520-0469 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/114570 Emanuel, Kerry and Fuqing Zhang. “The Role of Inner-Core Moisture in Tropical Cyclone Predictability and Practical Forecast Skill.” Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 74, 7 (July 2017): 2315–2324 © 2017 American Meteorological Society https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2066-2082 http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-17-0008.1 Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use. application/pdf American Meteorological Society American Meteorological Society |
| spellingShingle | Zhang, Fuqing Emanuel, Kerry Andrew The Role of Inner-Core Moisture in Tropical Cyclone Predictability and Practical Forecast Skill |
| title | The Role of Inner-Core Moisture in Tropical Cyclone Predictability and Practical Forecast Skill |
| title_full | The Role of Inner-Core Moisture in Tropical Cyclone Predictability and Practical Forecast Skill |
| title_fullStr | The Role of Inner-Core Moisture in Tropical Cyclone Predictability and Practical Forecast Skill |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Role of Inner-Core Moisture in Tropical Cyclone Predictability and Practical Forecast Skill |
| title_short | The Role of Inner-Core Moisture in Tropical Cyclone Predictability and Practical Forecast Skill |
| title_sort | role of inner core moisture in tropical cyclone predictability and practical forecast skill |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/114570 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2066-2082 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT zhangfuqing theroleofinnercoremoistureintropicalcyclonepredictabilityandpracticalforecastskill AT emanuelkerryandrew theroleofinnercoremoistureintropicalcyclonepredictabilityandpracticalforecastskill AT zhangfuqing roleofinnercoremoistureintropicalcyclonepredictabilityandpracticalforecastskill AT emanuelkerryandrew roleofinnercoremoistureintropicalcyclonepredictabilityandpracticalforecastskill |