Climate Models Lack Jet–Rainfall Coupling over West Africa
Changes in large-scale dynamics over West Africa-the strength and position of zonal jets-are a key interim step by which local and remote forcing is communicated into changes in rainfall. This study identifies a key mode of jet variability and demonstrates how it is strongly coupled with rainfall. T...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
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American Meteorological Society
2018
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/114588 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5364-8543 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8362-4761 |
| _version_ | 1811086288293462016 |
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| author | Nicholson, S. E. Schlosser, A. Whittleston, David Entekhabi, Dara |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Nicholson, S. E. Schlosser, A. Whittleston, David Entekhabi, Dara |
| author_sort | Nicholson, S. E. |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Changes in large-scale dynamics over West Africa-the strength and position of zonal jets-are a key interim step by which local and remote forcing is communicated into changes in rainfall. This study identifies a key mode of jet variability and demonstrates how it is strongly coupled with rainfall. The approach provides a quantitative framework to assess jet-rainfall coupling and a useful tool to investigate the concerning spread in CMIP5 rainfall projections over the West African Sahel. It is shown that many CMIP5 simulations fail to capture this coupling, indicating a fundamental limitation in their ability to predict future rainfall conditions. The results demonstrate that West African rainfall in the coming CMIP6 ensemble should be interpreted with caution; key atmospheric processes that deliver rainfall must be validated before conducting detailed analysis on rainfall. Keywords: Africa; Dynamics; Jets; Monsoons; Hydrometeorology; Model evaluation/performance |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T13:23:48Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/114588 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T13:23:48Z |
| publishDate | 2018 |
| publisher | American Meteorological Society |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1145882022-10-01T15:01:04Z Climate Models Lack Jet–Rainfall Coupling over West Africa Nicholson, S. E. Schlosser, A. Whittleston, David Entekhabi, Dara Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Whittleston, David Entekhabi, Dara Changes in large-scale dynamics over West Africa-the strength and position of zonal jets-are a key interim step by which local and remote forcing is communicated into changes in rainfall. This study identifies a key mode of jet variability and demonstrates how it is strongly coupled with rainfall. The approach provides a quantitative framework to assess jet-rainfall coupling and a useful tool to investigate the concerning spread in CMIP5 rainfall projections over the West African Sahel. It is shown that many CMIP5 simulations fail to capture this coupling, indicating a fundamental limitation in their ability to predict future rainfall conditions. The results demonstrate that West African rainfall in the coming CMIP6 ensemble should be interpreted with caution; key atmospheric processes that deliver rainfall must be validated before conducting detailed analysis on rainfall. Keywords: Africa; Dynamics; Jets; Monsoons; Hydrometeorology; Model evaluation/performance United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Grant NNX09AK26G) 2018-04-06T14:34:03Z 2018-04-06T14:34:03Z 2017-05 2017-03 2018-03-30T17:27:50Z Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 0894-8755 1520-0442 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/114588 Whittleston, D. et al. “Climate Models Lack Jet–Rainfall Coupling over West Africa.” Journal of Climate 30, 12 (June 2017): 4625–4632 © 2017 American Meteorological Society https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5364-8543 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8362-4761 http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0579.1 Journal of Climate Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use. application/pdf American Meteorological Society American Meteorological Society |
| spellingShingle | Nicholson, S. E. Schlosser, A. Whittleston, David Entekhabi, Dara Climate Models Lack Jet–Rainfall Coupling over West Africa |
| title | Climate Models Lack Jet–Rainfall Coupling over West Africa |
| title_full | Climate Models Lack Jet–Rainfall Coupling over West Africa |
| title_fullStr | Climate Models Lack Jet–Rainfall Coupling over West Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate Models Lack Jet–Rainfall Coupling over West Africa |
| title_short | Climate Models Lack Jet–Rainfall Coupling over West Africa |
| title_sort | climate models lack jet rainfall coupling over west africa |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/114588 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5364-8543 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8362-4761 |
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