Toward a consistent modeling framework to assess multi-sectoral climate impacts
Efforts to estimate the physical and economic impacts of future climate change face substantial challenges. To enrich the currently popular approaches to impact analysis - which involve evaluation of a damage function or multi-model comparisons based on a limited number of standardized scenarios - w...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Article |
| Published: |
Nature Publishing Group
2018
|
| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/115367 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5533-6570 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3287-0732 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8177-8137 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8820-470X https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1897-1270 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5925-3801 |
| _version_ | 1811093615618818048 |
|---|---|
| author | Kicklighter, David Haigh, Martin Monier, Erwan Paltsev, Sergey Sokolov, Andrei P Chen, Y.-H. Henry Gao, Xiang Ejaz, Qudsia J. Couzo, Evan Schlosser, Courtney Adam Dutkiewicz, Stephanie Fant, Charles W Scott, Jeffery R Morris, Jennifer Faye Jacoby, Henry D Prinn, Ronald G |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Joint Program on the Science & Policy of Global Change |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Joint Program on the Science & Policy of Global Change Kicklighter, David Haigh, Martin Monier, Erwan Paltsev, Sergey Sokolov, Andrei P Chen, Y.-H. Henry Gao, Xiang Ejaz, Qudsia J. Couzo, Evan Schlosser, Courtney Adam Dutkiewicz, Stephanie Fant, Charles W Scott, Jeffery R Morris, Jennifer Faye Jacoby, Henry D Prinn, Ronald G |
| author_sort | Kicklighter, David |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Efforts to estimate the physical and economic impacts of future climate change face substantial challenges. To enrich the currently popular approaches to impact analysis - which involve evaluation of a damage function or multi-model comparisons based on a limited number of standardized scenarios - we propose integrating a geospatially resolved physical representation of impacts into a coupled human-Earth system modeling framework. Large internationally coordinated exercises cannot easily respond to new policy targets and the implementation of standard scenarios across models, institutions and research communities can yield inconsistent estimates. Here, we argue for a shift toward the use of a self-consistent integrated modeling framework to assess climate impacts, and discuss ways the integrated assessment modeling community can move in this direction. We then demonstrate the capabilities of such a modeling framework by conducting a multi-sectoral assessment of climate impacts under a range of consistent and integrated economic and climate scenarios that are responsive to new policies and business expectations. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T15:47:55Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/115367 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T15:47:55Z |
| publishDate | 2018 |
| publisher | Nature Publishing Group |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1153672022-10-02T04:09:45Z Toward a consistent modeling framework to assess multi-sectoral climate impacts Kicklighter, David Haigh, Martin Monier, Erwan Paltsev, Sergey Sokolov, Andrei P Chen, Y.-H. Henry Gao, Xiang Ejaz, Qudsia J. Couzo, Evan Schlosser, Courtney Adam Dutkiewicz, Stephanie Fant, Charles W Scott, Jeffery R Morris, Jennifer Faye Jacoby, Henry D Prinn, Ronald G Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Joint Program on the Science & Policy of Global Change Monier, Erwan Paltsev, Sergey Sokolov, Andrei P Chen, Y.-H. Henry Gao, Xiang Ejaz, Qudsia J. Couzo, Evan Schlosser, Courtney Adam Dutkiewicz, Stephanie Fant, Charles W Scott, Jeffery R Morris, Jennifer Faye Jacoby, Henry D Prinn, Ronald G Efforts to estimate the physical and economic impacts of future climate change face substantial challenges. To enrich the currently popular approaches to impact analysis - which involve evaluation of a damage function or multi-model comparisons based on a limited number of standardized scenarios - we propose integrating a geospatially resolved physical representation of impacts into a coupled human-Earth system modeling framework. Large internationally coordinated exercises cannot easily respond to new policy targets and the implementation of standard scenarios across models, institutions and research communities can yield inconsistent estimates. Here, we argue for a shift toward the use of a self-consistent integrated modeling framework to assess climate impacts, and discuss ways the integrated assessment modeling community can move in this direction. We then demonstrate the capabilities of such a modeling framework by conducting a multi-sectoral assessment of climate impacts under a range of consistent and integrated economic and climate scenarios that are responsive to new policies and business expectations. 2018-05-14T19:09:34Z 2018-05-14T19:09:34Z 2018-02 2016-09 2018-04-27T15:34:29Z Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 2041-1723 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/115367 Monier, Erwan et al. “Toward a Consistent Modeling Framework to Assess Multi-Sectoral Climate Impacts.” Nature Communications 9, 1 (February 2018): 660 © 2018 The Author(s) https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5533-6570 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3287-0732 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8177-8137 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8820-470X https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1897-1270 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5925-3801 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-02984-9 Nature Communications Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ application/pdf Nature Publishing Group Nature Communications |
| spellingShingle | Kicklighter, David Haigh, Martin Monier, Erwan Paltsev, Sergey Sokolov, Andrei P Chen, Y.-H. Henry Gao, Xiang Ejaz, Qudsia J. Couzo, Evan Schlosser, Courtney Adam Dutkiewicz, Stephanie Fant, Charles W Scott, Jeffery R Morris, Jennifer Faye Jacoby, Henry D Prinn, Ronald G Toward a consistent modeling framework to assess multi-sectoral climate impacts |
| title | Toward a consistent modeling framework to assess multi-sectoral climate impacts |
| title_full | Toward a consistent modeling framework to assess multi-sectoral climate impacts |
| title_fullStr | Toward a consistent modeling framework to assess multi-sectoral climate impacts |
| title_full_unstemmed | Toward a consistent modeling framework to assess multi-sectoral climate impacts |
| title_short | Toward a consistent modeling framework to assess multi-sectoral climate impacts |
| title_sort | toward a consistent modeling framework to assess multi sectoral climate impacts |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/115367 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5533-6570 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3287-0732 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8177-8137 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8820-470X https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1897-1270 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5925-3801 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT kicklighterdavid towardaconsistentmodelingframeworktoassessmultisectoralclimateimpacts AT haighmartin towardaconsistentmodelingframeworktoassessmultisectoralclimateimpacts AT moniererwan towardaconsistentmodelingframeworktoassessmultisectoralclimateimpacts AT paltsevsergey towardaconsistentmodelingframeworktoassessmultisectoralclimateimpacts AT sokolovandreip towardaconsistentmodelingframeworktoassessmultisectoralclimateimpacts AT chenyhhenry towardaconsistentmodelingframeworktoassessmultisectoralclimateimpacts AT gaoxiang towardaconsistentmodelingframeworktoassessmultisectoralclimateimpacts AT ejazqudsiaj towardaconsistentmodelingframeworktoassessmultisectoralclimateimpacts AT couzoevan towardaconsistentmodelingframeworktoassessmultisectoralclimateimpacts AT schlossercourtneyadam towardaconsistentmodelingframeworktoassessmultisectoralclimateimpacts AT dutkiewiczstephanie towardaconsistentmodelingframeworktoassessmultisectoralclimateimpacts AT fantcharlesw towardaconsistentmodelingframeworktoassessmultisectoralclimateimpacts AT scottjefferyr towardaconsistentmodelingframeworktoassessmultisectoralclimateimpacts AT morrisjenniferfaye towardaconsistentmodelingframeworktoassessmultisectoralclimateimpacts AT jacobyhenryd towardaconsistentmodelingframeworktoassessmultisectoralclimateimpacts AT prinnronaldg towardaconsistentmodelingframeworktoassessmultisectoralclimateimpacts |