Quantifying the average and the likelihood of increases in space weather indices and in situ measurements during Solar Cycles 20-23
It is known that space weather harshly affects spacecraft performance, yet spacecraft operations and understanding the cause of anomalies can be challenging due to the complexity of environmental metrics. In this work, we analyse five metrics and in-situ measurements (Kp, Dst, and AE index, and high...
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| Format: | Article |
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Inderscience Publishers
2018
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/115438 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7791-5124 |
| _version_ | 1826196285147840512 |
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| author | Lohmeyer, Whitney Quinne Pang, Anthony Cahoy, Kerri Shprits, Yuri |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics Lohmeyer, Whitney Quinne Pang, Anthony Cahoy, Kerri Shprits, Yuri |
| author_sort | Lohmeyer, Whitney Quinne |
| collection | MIT |
| description | It is known that space weather harshly affects spacecraft performance, yet spacecraft operations and understanding the cause of anomalies can be challenging due to the complexity of environmental metrics. In this work, we analyse five metrics and in-situ measurements (Kp, Dst, and AE index, and high-energy proton and electron flux) throughout Solar Cycles 20-23 (1964 to 2008), and provide a baseline for the environment during the phases of the solar cycles (maximum, minimum, declining or ascending). We define increased activity as activity greater than two median absolute deviations (MADs) above the average activity for each phase. MAD is used, rather than standard deviation, because it is more resilient to outliers. The average and MAD values are tabulated in Table 3 to Table 6. We determine the probability that increased activity occurs 3, 14 or 30 days before a random day to distinguish between increased/quiet activities and to aid in correlating intensifications of the environment and anomalous satellite performance. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T10:24:29Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/115438 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T10:24:29Z |
| publishDate | 2018 |
| publisher | Inderscience Publishers |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1154382022-09-30T20:56:03Z Quantifying the average and the likelihood of increases in space weather indices and in situ measurements during Solar Cycles 20-23 Lohmeyer, Whitney Quinne Pang, Anthony Cahoy, Kerri Shprits, Yuri Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics Lohmeyer, Whitney Quinne Pang, Anthony Cahoy, Kerri Shprits, Yuri It is known that space weather harshly affects spacecraft performance, yet spacecraft operations and understanding the cause of anomalies can be challenging due to the complexity of environmental metrics. In this work, we analyse five metrics and in-situ measurements (Kp, Dst, and AE index, and high-energy proton and electron flux) throughout Solar Cycles 20-23 (1964 to 2008), and provide a baseline for the environment during the phases of the solar cycles (maximum, minimum, declining or ascending). We define increased activity as activity greater than two median absolute deviations (MADs) above the average activity for each phase. MAD is used, rather than standard deviation, because it is more resilient to outliers. The average and MAD values are tabulated in Table 3 to Table 6. We determine the probability that increased activity occurs 3, 14 or 30 days before a random day to distinguish between increased/quiet activities and to aid in correlating intensifications of the environment and anomalous satellite performance. 2018-05-17T18:48:15Z 2018-05-17T18:48:15Z 2014-01 2018-03-16T13:11:42Z Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 2048-8459 2048-8467 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/115438 Lohmeyer, Whitney Q. et al. “Quantifying the Average and the Likelihood of Increases in Space Weather Indices and in Situ Measurements During Solar Cycles 20-23.” International Journal of Space Science and Engineering 1, 3 (2013): 230 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7791-5124 http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/IJSPACESE.2013.058856 International Journal of Space Science and Engineering Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ application/pdf Inderscience Publishers MIT Web Domain |
| spellingShingle | Lohmeyer, Whitney Quinne Pang, Anthony Cahoy, Kerri Shprits, Yuri Quantifying the average and the likelihood of increases in space weather indices and in situ measurements during Solar Cycles 20-23 |
| title | Quantifying the average and the likelihood of increases in space weather indices and in situ measurements during Solar Cycles 20-23 |
| title_full | Quantifying the average and the likelihood of increases in space weather indices and in situ measurements during Solar Cycles 20-23 |
| title_fullStr | Quantifying the average and the likelihood of increases in space weather indices and in situ measurements during Solar Cycles 20-23 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Quantifying the average and the likelihood of increases in space weather indices and in situ measurements during Solar Cycles 20-23 |
| title_short | Quantifying the average and the likelihood of increases in space weather indices and in situ measurements during Solar Cycles 20-23 |
| title_sort | quantifying the average and the likelihood of increases in space weather indices and in situ measurements during solar cycles 20 23 |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/115438 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7791-5124 |
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