Environmental determinants of malaria transmission in African villages
Background Malaria transmission is complex, involving a range of hydroclimatological, biological, and environmental processes. The high degree of non-linearity in these processes makes it difficult to predict and intervene against malaria. This study seeks both to define a minimal number of malar...
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| Format: | Article |
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Springer Nature
2018
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/117262 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4123-0489 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6148-7997 |
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| author | Endo, Noriko Eltahir, Elfatih A. B. |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Endo, Noriko Eltahir, Elfatih A. B. |
| author_sort | Endo, Noriko |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Background
Malaria transmission is complex, involving a range of hydroclimatological, biological, and environmental processes. The high degree of non-linearity in these processes makes it difficult to predict and intervene against malaria. This study seeks both to define a minimal number of malaria transmission determinants, and to provide a theoretical basis for sustainable environmental manipulation to prevent malaria transmission.
Methods
Using a field-tested mechanistic malaria model, HYDREMATS, a theoretical study was conducted under hypothetical conditions. Simulations were conducted with a range of hydroclimatological and environmental conditions: temperature (t), length of wet season (Twet), storm inter-arrival time (Tint), persistence of vector breeding pools (Ton), and distribution of houses from breeding pools and from each other (Xdist and Ydist, respectively). Based on the theoretical study, a malaria time scale, To, and a predictive theory of malaria transmission were introduced. The performance of the predictive theory was compared against the observational malaria transmission data in West Africa. Population density was used to estimate the scale that describes the spatial distribution of houses.
Results
The predictive theory shows a universality in malaria endemic conditions when plotted using two newly-introduced dimension-less parameters. The projected malaria transmission potential compared well with the observation data, and the apparent differences were discussed. The results illustrate the importance of spatial aspects in malaria transmission.
Conclusions
The predictive theory is useful in measuring malaria transmission potential, and it can also provide guidelines on how to plan the layout of human habitats in order to prevent endemic malaria. Malaria-resistant villages can be designed by locating houses further than critical distances away from breeding pools or by removing pools within a critical distance from houses; the critical distance is described in the context of local climatology and hydrology.
Keywords: Malaria transmission; Hydrology; Spatial impact; Characteristic time scale |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T11:06:35Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/117262 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T11:06:35Z |
| publishDate | 2018 |
| publisher | Springer Nature |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1172622022-10-01T01:19:30Z Environmental determinants of malaria transmission in African villages Endo, Noriko Eltahir, Elfatih A. B. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Endo, Noriko Eltahir, Elfatih A. B. Background Malaria transmission is complex, involving a range of hydroclimatological, biological, and environmental processes. The high degree of non-linearity in these processes makes it difficult to predict and intervene against malaria. This study seeks both to define a minimal number of malaria transmission determinants, and to provide a theoretical basis for sustainable environmental manipulation to prevent malaria transmission. Methods Using a field-tested mechanistic malaria model, HYDREMATS, a theoretical study was conducted under hypothetical conditions. Simulations were conducted with a range of hydroclimatological and environmental conditions: temperature (t), length of wet season (Twet), storm inter-arrival time (Tint), persistence of vector breeding pools (Ton), and distribution of houses from breeding pools and from each other (Xdist and Ydist, respectively). Based on the theoretical study, a malaria time scale, To, and a predictive theory of malaria transmission were introduced. The performance of the predictive theory was compared against the observational malaria transmission data in West Africa. Population density was used to estimate the scale that describes the spatial distribution of houses. Results The predictive theory shows a universality in malaria endemic conditions when plotted using two newly-introduced dimension-less parameters. The projected malaria transmission potential compared well with the observation data, and the apparent differences were discussed. The results illustrate the importance of spatial aspects in malaria transmission. Conclusions The predictive theory is useful in measuring malaria transmission potential, and it can also provide guidelines on how to plan the layout of human habitats in order to prevent endemic malaria. Malaria-resistant villages can be designed by locating houses further than critical distances away from breeding pools or by removing pools within a critical distance from houses; the critical distance is described in the context of local climatology and hydrology. Keywords: Malaria transmission; Hydrology; Spatial impact; Characteristic time scale 2018-08-01T14:51:50Z 2018-08-01T14:51:50Z 2016-12 2016-09 2018-08-01T13:34:49Z Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 1475-2875 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/117262 Endo, Noriko and Elfatih A. B. Eltahir. “Environmental Determinants of Malaria Transmission in African Villages.” Malaria Journal 15, 1 (December 2016): 578 © 2016 The Author(s) https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4123-0489 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6148-7997 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/S12936-016-1633-7 Malaria Journal Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ application/pdf Springer Nature BioMedCentral |
| spellingShingle | Endo, Noriko Eltahir, Elfatih A. B. Environmental determinants of malaria transmission in African villages |
| title | Environmental determinants of malaria transmission in African villages |
| title_full | Environmental determinants of malaria transmission in African villages |
| title_fullStr | Environmental determinants of malaria transmission in African villages |
| title_full_unstemmed | Environmental determinants of malaria transmission in African villages |
| title_short | Environmental determinants of malaria transmission in African villages |
| title_sort | environmental determinants of malaria transmission in african villages |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/117262 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4123-0489 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6148-7997 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT endonoriko environmentaldeterminantsofmalariatransmissioninafricanvillages AT eltahirelfatihab environmentaldeterminantsofmalariatransmissioninafricanvillages |