Simulating the connections of ENSO and the rainfall regime of East Africa and the upper Blue Nile region using a climate model of the Tropics
We simulate the observed statistical relationship between ENSO and the rainfall regime of the upper Blue Nile using the tropical-band version of the regional climate model RegCM4 (or Reg-TB). An ensemble of nine simulations for the 28-year period 1982–2009 is completed to investigate the role of ENS...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Article |
| Published: |
Copernicus GmbH
2018
|
| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/117290 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6148-7997 |
| _version_ | 1811086097707433984 |
|---|---|
| author | Zaroug, M. A. H. Giorgi, F. Coppale, E. Abdo, G. M. Eltahir, Elfatih A. B. |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Zaroug, M. A. H. Giorgi, F. Coppale, E. Abdo, G. M. Eltahir, Elfatih A. B. |
| author_sort | Zaroug, M. A. H. |
| collection | MIT |
| description | We simulate the observed statistical relationship between ENSO and the rainfall regime of the upper Blue Nile using the tropical-band version of the regional climate model RegCM4 (or Reg-TB). An ensemble of nine simulations for the 28-year period 1982–2009 is completed to investigate the role of ENSO in modulating rainfall over the upper Blue Nile catchment. Reg-TB shows a good skill in simulating the cli- matology of temperature, outgoing long-wave radiation pat- terns as well as related atmospheric circulation features dur- ing the summer season (i.e. the rainy season over the Blue Nile catchment). The model also succeeds in reproducing the observed negative correlation between Pacific SST and rain- fall anomalies over the Blue Nile catchment, and in particular the association of droughts over the Blue Nile with El Niño events that start in April–June. We thus propose that observa- tions and model forecasts of Pacific SST during this season could be used in seasonal forecasting of summer rainfall over the upper Blue Nile region. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T13:20:52Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/117290 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T13:20:52Z |
| publishDate | 2018 |
| publisher | Copernicus GmbH |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1172902022-09-28T13:34:58Z Simulating the connections of ENSO and the rainfall regime of East Africa and the upper Blue Nile region using a climate model of the Tropics Zaroug, M. A. H. Giorgi, F. Coppale, E. Abdo, G. M. Eltahir, Elfatih A. B. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Eltahir, Elfatih A. B. We simulate the observed statistical relationship between ENSO and the rainfall regime of the upper Blue Nile using the tropical-band version of the regional climate model RegCM4 (or Reg-TB). An ensemble of nine simulations for the 28-year period 1982–2009 is completed to investigate the role of ENSO in modulating rainfall over the upper Blue Nile catchment. Reg-TB shows a good skill in simulating the cli- matology of temperature, outgoing long-wave radiation pat- terns as well as related atmospheric circulation features dur- ing the summer season (i.e. the rainy season over the Blue Nile catchment). The model also succeeds in reproducing the observed negative correlation between Pacific SST and rain- fall anomalies over the Blue Nile catchment, and in particular the association of droughts over the Blue Nile with El Niño events that start in April–June. We thus propose that observa- tions and model forecasts of Pacific SST during this season could be used in seasonal forecasting of summer rainfall over the upper Blue Nile region. International Centre for Theoretical Physics (Earth System Physics) International Centre for Theoretical Physics (Sandwich Training Educational Programme) European Commission (collaborative DEWFORA project) 2018-08-07T12:12:21Z 2018-08-07T12:12:21Z 2014-11 2014-09 2018-08-01T13:41:53Z Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 1812-2116 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/117290 Zaroug, M. A. H., F. Giorgi, E. Coppale, and E. A. B. Eltahir. “Simulating the connections of ENSO and the rainfall regime of East Africa and the upper Blue Nile region using a climate model of the Tropics.” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 11, no. 2 (February 20, 2014): 2233–2262. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6148-7997 http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/HESSD-11-2233-2014 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ application/pdf Copernicus GmbH Copernicus Publications |
| spellingShingle | Zaroug, M. A. H. Giorgi, F. Coppale, E. Abdo, G. M. Eltahir, Elfatih A. B. Simulating the connections of ENSO and the rainfall regime of East Africa and the upper Blue Nile region using a climate model of the Tropics |
| title | Simulating the connections of ENSO and the rainfall regime of East Africa and the upper Blue Nile region using a climate model of the Tropics |
| title_full | Simulating the connections of ENSO and the rainfall regime of East Africa and the upper Blue Nile region using a climate model of the Tropics |
| title_fullStr | Simulating the connections of ENSO and the rainfall regime of East Africa and the upper Blue Nile region using a climate model of the Tropics |
| title_full_unstemmed | Simulating the connections of ENSO and the rainfall regime of East Africa and the upper Blue Nile region using a climate model of the Tropics |
| title_short | Simulating the connections of ENSO and the rainfall regime of East Africa and the upper Blue Nile region using a climate model of the Tropics |
| title_sort | simulating the connections of enso and the rainfall regime of east africa and the upper blue nile region using a climate model of the tropics |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/117290 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6148-7997 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT zarougmah simulatingtheconnectionsofensoandtherainfallregimeofeastafricaandtheupperbluenileregionusingaclimatemodelofthetropics AT giorgif simulatingtheconnectionsofensoandtherainfallregimeofeastafricaandtheupperbluenileregionusingaclimatemodelofthetropics AT coppalee simulatingtheconnectionsofensoandtherainfallregimeofeastafricaandtheupperbluenileregionusingaclimatemodelofthetropics AT abdogm simulatingtheconnectionsofensoandtherainfallregimeofeastafricaandtheupperbluenileregionusingaclimatemodelofthetropics AT eltahirelfatihab simulatingtheconnectionsofensoandtherainfallregimeofeastafricaandtheupperbluenileregionusingaclimatemodelofthetropics |