Sensitivity of Antarctic sea ice to the Southern Annular Mode in coupled climate models
We assess the sea ice response to Southern Annular Mode (SAM) anomalies for pre-industrial control simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Consistent with work by Ferreira et al. (J Clim 28:1206–1226, 2015. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00313.1), the models generally simulate a...
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Springer-Verlag
2018
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/118481 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4099-5789 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9230-3591 |
| _version_ | 1826189843306119168 |
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| author | Holland, Marika M. Landrum, Laura Kostov, Yavor Krasimirov Marshall, John C |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Holland, Marika M. Landrum, Laura Kostov, Yavor Krasimirov Marshall, John C |
| author_sort | Holland, Marika M. |
| collection | MIT |
| description | We assess the sea ice response to Southern Annular Mode (SAM) anomalies for pre-industrial control simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Consistent with work by Ferreira et al. (J Clim 28:1206–1226, 2015. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00313.1), the models generally simulate a two-timescale response to positive SAM anomalies, with an initial increase in ice followed by an eventual sea ice decline. However, the models differ in the cross-over time at which the change in ice response occurs, in the overall magnitude of the response, and in the spatial distribution of the response. Late twentieth century Antarctic sea ice trends in CMIP5 simulations are related in part to different modeled responses to SAM variability acting on different time-varying transient SAM conditions. This explains a significant fraction of the spread in simulated late twentieth century southern hemisphere sea ice extent trends across the model simulations. Applying the modeled sea ice response to SAM variability but driven by the observed record of SAM suggests that variations in the austral summer SAM, which has exhibited a significant positive trend, have driven a modest sea ice decrease. However, additional work is needed to narrow the considerable model uncertainty in the climate response to SAM variability and its implications for 20th–21st century trends. Keywords: Antarctic sea ice; Southern Annular Mode; Climate models |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T08:24:21Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/118481 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T08:24:21Z |
| publishDate | 2018 |
| publisher | Springer-Verlag |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1184812022-09-23T12:37:23Z Sensitivity of Antarctic sea ice to the Southern Annular Mode in coupled climate models Holland, Marika M. Landrum, Laura Kostov, Yavor Krasimirov Marshall, John C Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Kostov, Yavor Krasimirov Marshall, John C We assess the sea ice response to Southern Annular Mode (SAM) anomalies for pre-industrial control simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Consistent with work by Ferreira et al. (J Clim 28:1206–1226, 2015. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00313.1), the models generally simulate a two-timescale response to positive SAM anomalies, with an initial increase in ice followed by an eventual sea ice decline. However, the models differ in the cross-over time at which the change in ice response occurs, in the overall magnitude of the response, and in the spatial distribution of the response. Late twentieth century Antarctic sea ice trends in CMIP5 simulations are related in part to different modeled responses to SAM variability acting on different time-varying transient SAM conditions. This explains a significant fraction of the spread in simulated late twentieth century southern hemisphere sea ice extent trends across the model simulations. Applying the modeled sea ice response to SAM variability but driven by the observed record of SAM suggests that variations in the austral summer SAM, which has exhibited a significant positive trend, have driven a modest sea ice decrease. However, additional work is needed to narrow the considerable model uncertainty in the climate response to SAM variability and its implications for 20th–21st century trends. Keywords: Antarctic sea ice; Southern Annular Mode; Climate models National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Grant 1338814) National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Grant 1048926) 2018-10-15T17:33:08Z 2018-10-15T17:33:08Z 2016-10 2016-06 2018-09-26T18:27:11Z Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 0930-7575 1432-0894 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/118481 Holland, Marika M., Laura Landrum, Yavor Kostov, and John Marshall. “Sensitivity of Antarctic Sea Ice to the Southern Annular Mode in Coupled Climate Models.” Climate Dynamics 49, 5–6 (October 28, 2016): 1813–1831 © 2016 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4099-5789 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9230-3591 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/S00382-016-3424-9 Climate Dynamics Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ application/pdf Springer-Verlag MIT Web Domain |
| spellingShingle | Holland, Marika M. Landrum, Laura Kostov, Yavor Krasimirov Marshall, John C Sensitivity of Antarctic sea ice to the Southern Annular Mode in coupled climate models |
| title | Sensitivity of Antarctic sea ice to the Southern Annular Mode in coupled climate models |
| title_full | Sensitivity of Antarctic sea ice to the Southern Annular Mode in coupled climate models |
| title_fullStr | Sensitivity of Antarctic sea ice to the Southern Annular Mode in coupled climate models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Sensitivity of Antarctic sea ice to the Southern Annular Mode in coupled climate models |
| title_short | Sensitivity of Antarctic sea ice to the Southern Annular Mode in coupled climate models |
| title_sort | sensitivity of antarctic sea ice to the southern annular mode in coupled climate models |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/118481 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4099-5789 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9230-3591 |
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