Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)
In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-indust...
| Главные авторы: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Другие авторы: | |
| Формат: | Статья |
| Язык: | en_US |
| Опубликовано: |
Copernicus GmbH
2018
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| Online-ссылка: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/119493 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2066-2082 |
| _version_ | 1826204116352761856 |
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| author | Frieler, Katja Lange, Stefan Piontek, Franziska Reyer, Christopher P. O. Schewe, Jacob Warszawski, Lila Zhao, Fang Chini, Louise Denvil, Sebastien Geiger, Tobias Halladay, Kate Hurtt, George Mengel, Matthias Murakami, Daisuke Ostberg, Sebastian Popp, Alexander Riva, Riccardo Stevanovic, Miodrag Suzuki, Tatsuo Volkholz, Jan Burke, Eleanor Ciais, Philippe Ebi, Kristie Eddy, Tyler D. Elliott, Joshua Galbraith, Eric Gosling, Simon N. Hattermann, Fred Hickler, Thomas Hinkel, Jochen Hof, Christian Huber, Veronika Jägermeyr, Jonas Krysanova, Valentina Marcé, Rafael Schmied, Hannes Müller Mouratiadou, Ioanna Pierson, Don Tittensor, Derek P. Vautard, Robert van Vliet, Michelle Biber, Matthias F. Betts, Richard A. Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon Deryng, Delphine Frolking, Steve Jones, Chris D. Lotze, Heike K. Lotze-Campen, Hermann Sahajpal, Ritvik Thonicke, Kirsten Tian, Hanqin Yamagata, Yoshiki Emanuel, Kerry Andrew |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Frieler, Katja Lange, Stefan Piontek, Franziska Reyer, Christopher P. O. Schewe, Jacob Warszawski, Lila Zhao, Fang Chini, Louise Denvil, Sebastien Geiger, Tobias Halladay, Kate Hurtt, George Mengel, Matthias Murakami, Daisuke Ostberg, Sebastian Popp, Alexander Riva, Riccardo Stevanovic, Miodrag Suzuki, Tatsuo Volkholz, Jan Burke, Eleanor Ciais, Philippe Ebi, Kristie Eddy, Tyler D. Elliott, Joshua Galbraith, Eric Gosling, Simon N. Hattermann, Fred Hickler, Thomas Hinkel, Jochen Hof, Christian Huber, Veronika Jägermeyr, Jonas Krysanova, Valentina Marcé, Rafael Schmied, Hannes Müller Mouratiadou, Ioanna Pierson, Don Tittensor, Derek P. Vautard, Robert van Vliet, Michelle Biber, Matthias F. Betts, Richard A. Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon Deryng, Delphine Frolking, Steve Jones, Chris D. Lotze, Heike K. Lotze-Campen, Hermann Sahajpal, Ritvik Thonicke, Kirsten Tian, Hanqin Yamagata, Yoshiki Emanuel, Kerry Andrew |
| author_sort | Frieler, Katja |
| collection | MIT |
| description | In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5°C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiversity). |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T12:49:09Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/119493 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T12:49:09Z |
| publishDate | 2018 |
| publisher | Copernicus GmbH |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1194932022-09-28T10:14:08Z Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b) Frieler, Katja Lange, Stefan Piontek, Franziska Reyer, Christopher P. O. Schewe, Jacob Warszawski, Lila Zhao, Fang Chini, Louise Denvil, Sebastien Geiger, Tobias Halladay, Kate Hurtt, George Mengel, Matthias Murakami, Daisuke Ostberg, Sebastian Popp, Alexander Riva, Riccardo Stevanovic, Miodrag Suzuki, Tatsuo Volkholz, Jan Burke, Eleanor Ciais, Philippe Ebi, Kristie Eddy, Tyler D. Elliott, Joshua Galbraith, Eric Gosling, Simon N. Hattermann, Fred Hickler, Thomas Hinkel, Jochen Hof, Christian Huber, Veronika Jägermeyr, Jonas Krysanova, Valentina Marcé, Rafael Schmied, Hannes Müller Mouratiadou, Ioanna Pierson, Don Tittensor, Derek P. Vautard, Robert van Vliet, Michelle Biber, Matthias F. Betts, Richard A. Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon Deryng, Delphine Frolking, Steve Jones, Chris D. Lotze, Heike K. Lotze-Campen, Hermann Sahajpal, Ritvik Thonicke, Kirsten Tian, Hanqin Yamagata, Yoshiki Emanuel, Kerry Andrew Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Emanuel, Kerry Andrew In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5°C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiversity). 2018-12-10T16:34:37Z 2018-12-10T16:34:37Z 2017-11 2017-10 Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 1991-9603 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/119493 Frieler, Katja et al. “Assessing the Impacts of 1.5 °C Global Warming – Simulation Protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b).” Geoscientific Model Development 10, 12 (November 2017): 4321–4345 © 2017 The Authors https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2066-2082 en_US https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017 Geoscientific Model Development Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ application/pdf Copernicus GmbH Copernicus Publications |
| spellingShingle | Frieler, Katja Lange, Stefan Piontek, Franziska Reyer, Christopher P. O. Schewe, Jacob Warszawski, Lila Zhao, Fang Chini, Louise Denvil, Sebastien Geiger, Tobias Halladay, Kate Hurtt, George Mengel, Matthias Murakami, Daisuke Ostberg, Sebastian Popp, Alexander Riva, Riccardo Stevanovic, Miodrag Suzuki, Tatsuo Volkholz, Jan Burke, Eleanor Ciais, Philippe Ebi, Kristie Eddy, Tyler D. Elliott, Joshua Galbraith, Eric Gosling, Simon N. Hattermann, Fred Hickler, Thomas Hinkel, Jochen Hof, Christian Huber, Veronika Jägermeyr, Jonas Krysanova, Valentina Marcé, Rafael Schmied, Hannes Müller Mouratiadou, Ioanna Pierson, Don Tittensor, Derek P. Vautard, Robert van Vliet, Michelle Biber, Matthias F. Betts, Richard A. Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon Deryng, Delphine Frolking, Steve Jones, Chris D. Lotze, Heike K. Lotze-Campen, Hermann Sahajpal, Ritvik Thonicke, Kirsten Tian, Hanqin Yamagata, Yoshiki Emanuel, Kerry Andrew Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b) |
| title | Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b) |
| title_full | Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b) |
| title_fullStr | Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b) |
| title_short | Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b) |
| title_sort | assessing the impacts of 1 5 °c global warming simulation protocol of the inter sectoral impact model intercomparison project isimip2b |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/119493 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2066-2082 |
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