Meeting the Goals of the Paris Agreement: Temperature Implications of the Shell Sky Scenario
The Paris Agreement makes long-term energy and climate projections particularly important because it calls for a goal that likely requires an energy system that is based on a radically different fuel mix than currently in use. This presents a challenge for energy companies as they try to anticipate...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | en_US |
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MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change
2019
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| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/121477 |
| _version_ | 1826216021809168384 |
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| author | Paltsev, Sergey Sokolov, Andrei P Gao, Xiang Haigh, Martin |
| author_facet | Paltsev, Sergey Sokolov, Andrei P Gao, Xiang Haigh, Martin |
| author_sort | Paltsev, Sergey |
| collection | MIT |
| description | The Paris Agreement makes long-term energy and climate projections particularly important because it calls for a goal that likely requires an energy system that is based on a radically different fuel mix than currently in use. This presents a challenge for energy companies as they try to anticipate the types of energy and fuels that will be required to stay competitive while meeting environmental requirements. A new scenario (called Sky) developed by Shell International examines the challenge of moving to an energy system with net-zero CO2 emissions and gradually eliminate emissions from deforestation by midway through the second half of the century (specifically by the year of 2070). Using the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling (IGSM) framework, we simulate a 400-member ensemble, reflecting uncertainty in Earth system response of global temperature change associated with the Sky scenario by 2100. We find that for the median climate parameters the global surface temperature increase by 2100 is 1.75°C above the pre-industrial levels with an 85% probability of remaining below 2°C. The geographic distribution of the temperature change shows a stronger warming in Polar regions. If, in addition, there is a significant effort directed toward global reforestation then, with median climate parameters, temperature increase by 2100, is near 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T16:40:44Z |
| format | Working Paper |
| id | mit-1721.1/121477 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T16:40:44Z |
| publishDate | 2019 |
| publisher | MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1214772019-07-02T03:04:34Z Meeting the Goals of the Paris Agreement: Temperature Implications of the Shell Sky Scenario Paltsev, Sergey Sokolov, Andrei P Gao, Xiang Haigh, Martin The Paris Agreement makes long-term energy and climate projections particularly important because it calls for a goal that likely requires an energy system that is based on a radically different fuel mix than currently in use. This presents a challenge for energy companies as they try to anticipate the types of energy and fuels that will be required to stay competitive while meeting environmental requirements. A new scenario (called Sky) developed by Shell International examines the challenge of moving to an energy system with net-zero CO2 emissions and gradually eliminate emissions from deforestation by midway through the second half of the century (specifically by the year of 2070). Using the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling (IGSM) framework, we simulate a 400-member ensemble, reflecting uncertainty in Earth system response of global temperature change associated with the Sky scenario by 2100. We find that for the median climate parameters the global surface temperature increase by 2100 is 1.75°C above the pre-industrial levels with an 85% probability of remaining below 2°C. The geographic distribution of the temperature change shows a stronger warming in Polar regions. If, in addition, there is a significant effort directed toward global reforestation then, with median climate parameters, temperature increase by 2100, is near 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. A development of the IGSM framework used in the analysis is supported by the by an international consortium of government, industry and foundation sponsors of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change. For a complete list, see https://globalchange.mit.edu/sponsors. Shell participated actively in this study, supplying the background data behind their scenarios. MIT remain responsible for all analysis and conclusions. Shell provided a gift of USD 100,000 to the MIT Joint Program, to defray costs related to this research. Martin Haigh represents the Scenarios Team at Shell International Ltd. The paper also benefited from comments from David Hone and John Reilly. 2019-07-01T21:14:39Z 2019-07-01T21:14:39Z 2018-04 Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/121477 Report 330 en_US MIT Joint Program Report Series;330 application/pdf MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change |
| spellingShingle | Paltsev, Sergey Sokolov, Andrei P Gao, Xiang Haigh, Martin Meeting the Goals of the Paris Agreement: Temperature Implications of the Shell Sky Scenario |
| title | Meeting the Goals of the Paris Agreement: Temperature Implications of the Shell Sky Scenario |
| title_full | Meeting the Goals of the Paris Agreement: Temperature Implications of the Shell Sky Scenario |
| title_fullStr | Meeting the Goals of the Paris Agreement: Temperature Implications of the Shell Sky Scenario |
| title_full_unstemmed | Meeting the Goals of the Paris Agreement: Temperature Implications of the Shell Sky Scenario |
| title_short | Meeting the Goals of the Paris Agreement: Temperature Implications of the Shell Sky Scenario |
| title_sort | meeting the goals of the paris agreement temperature implications of the shell sky scenario |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/121477 |
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