Quantifying contributions of chlorofluorocarbon banks to emissions and impacts on the ozone layer and climate
Chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) banks from uses such as air conditioners or foams can be emitted after global production stops. Recent reports of unexpected emissions of CFC-11 raise the need to better quantify releases from these banks, and associated impacts on ozone depletion and climate change. Here we...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Springer Science and Business Media LLC
2020
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| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/124674 |
| _version_ | 1826214945264500736 |
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| author | Lickley, Megan Jeramaz Solomon, Susan Fletcher, Sarah Marie Stone, Kane Adam |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Lickley, Megan Jeramaz Solomon, Susan Fletcher, Sarah Marie Stone, Kane Adam |
| author_sort | Lickley, Megan Jeramaz |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) banks from uses such as air conditioners or foams can be emitted after global production stops. Recent reports of unexpected emissions of CFC-11 raise the need to better quantify releases from these banks, and associated impacts on ozone depletion and climate change. Here we develop a Bayesian probabilistic model for CFC-11, 12, and 113 banks and their emissions, incorporating the broadest range of constraints to date. We find that bank sizes of CFC-11 and CFC-12 are larger than recent international scientific assessments suggested, and can account for much of current estimated CFC-11 and 12 emissions (with the exception of increased CFC-11 emissions after 2012). Left unrecovered, these CFC banks could delay Antarctic ozone hole recovery by about six years and contribute 9 billion metric tonnes of equivalent CO2 emission. Derived CFC-113 emissions are subject to uncertainty, but are much larger than expected, raising questions about its sources. ©2020 |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T16:13:08Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/124674 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T16:13:08Z |
| publishDate | 2020 |
| publisher | Springer Science and Business Media LLC |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1246742022-09-29T19:00:06Z Quantifying contributions of chlorofluorocarbon banks to emissions and impacts on the ozone layer and climate Lickley, Megan Jeramaz Solomon, Susan Fletcher, Sarah Marie Stone, Kane Adam Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) banks from uses such as air conditioners or foams can be emitted after global production stops. Recent reports of unexpected emissions of CFC-11 raise the need to better quantify releases from these banks, and associated impacts on ozone depletion and climate change. Here we develop a Bayesian probabilistic model for CFC-11, 12, and 113 banks and their emissions, incorporating the broadest range of constraints to date. We find that bank sizes of CFC-11 and CFC-12 are larger than recent international scientific assessments suggested, and can account for much of current estimated CFC-11 and 12 emissions (with the exception of increased CFC-11 emissions after 2012). Left unrecovered, these CFC banks could delay Antarctic ozone hole recovery by about six years and contribute 9 billion metric tonnes of equivalent CO2 emission. Derived CFC-113 emissions are subject to uncertainty, but are much larger than expected, raising questions about its sources. ©2020 2020-04-15T19:38:12Z 2020-04-15T19:38:12Z 2020-03 2020-04-07T12:06:47Z Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 2041-1723 https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/124674 Lickley, Megan, et al., "Quantifying contributions of chlorofluorocarbon banks to emissions and impacts on the ozone layer and climate." Nature communications 11, 1 (March 2020): no. 1380 doi 10.1038/s41467-020-15162-7 ©2020 Author(s) en 10.1038/s41467-020-15162-7 Nature communications Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ application/pdf Springer Science and Business Media LLC Nature |
| spellingShingle | Lickley, Megan Jeramaz Solomon, Susan Fletcher, Sarah Marie Stone, Kane Adam Quantifying contributions of chlorofluorocarbon banks to emissions and impacts on the ozone layer and climate |
| title | Quantifying contributions of chlorofluorocarbon banks to emissions and impacts on the ozone layer and climate |
| title_full | Quantifying contributions of chlorofluorocarbon banks to emissions and impacts on the ozone layer and climate |
| title_fullStr | Quantifying contributions of chlorofluorocarbon banks to emissions and impacts on the ozone layer and climate |
| title_full_unstemmed | Quantifying contributions of chlorofluorocarbon banks to emissions and impacts on the ozone layer and climate |
| title_short | Quantifying contributions of chlorofluorocarbon banks to emissions and impacts on the ozone layer and climate |
| title_sort | quantifying contributions of chlorofluorocarbon banks to emissions and impacts on the ozone layer and climate |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/124674 |
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