An Experimental Study of Cryptocurrency Market Dynamics

As cryptocurrencies gain popularity and credibility, marketplaces for cryptocurrencies are growing in importance. Understanding the dynamics of these markets can help to assess how viable the cryptocurrnency ecosystem is and how design choices affect market behavior. One existential threat to crypto...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Krafft, Peter M., Della Penna, Nicolas, Pentland, Alex Paul
Other Authors: Program in Media Arts and Sciences (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Association for Computing Machinery (ACM) 2020
Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/125239
Description
Summary:As cryptocurrencies gain popularity and credibility, marketplaces for cryptocurrencies are growing in importance. Understanding the dynamics of these markets can help to assess how viable the cryptocurrnency ecosystem is and how design choices affect market behavior. One existential threat to cryptocurrencies is dramatic fluctuations in traders' willingness to buy or sell. Using a novel experimental methodology, we conducted an online experiment to study how susceptible traders in these markets are to peer influence from trading behavior. We created bots that executed over one hundred thousand trades costing less than a penny each in 217 cryptocurrencies over the course of six months. We find that individual "buy" actions led to short-term increases in subsequent buy-side activity hundreds of times the size of our interventions. From a design perspective, we note that the design choices of the exchange we study may have promoted this and other peer influence effects, which highlights the potential social and economic impact of HCI in the design of digital institutions. Keywords: Cryptocurrencies; online markets; peer influence; computational social science; online field experiments; digital institutions; design; market design