Time of steady climate change
Under an emission scenario where atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized, previous work suggests that on centennial time scales the rate of global temperature increases would steady at significantly lower rates than those of the 21st century. As climate change is not globally unifor...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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American Geophysical Union (AGU)
2020
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| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/125249 |
| _version_ | 1826200833680736256 |
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| author | Lickley, Megan Jeramaz Cael, B. B. Solomon, Susan |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Lickley, Megan Jeramaz Cael, B. B. Solomon, Susan |
| author_sort | Lickley, Megan Jeramaz |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Under an emission scenario where atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized, previous work suggests that on centennial time scales the rate of global temperature increases would steady at significantly lower rates than those of the 21st century. As climate change is not globally uniform, regional differences in achieving this steady rate of warming can be expected. Here, we define a “Time of Steady Change” (TSC) as the time of reaching this steady rate of warming, and we present a method for estimating TSC with the use of General Circulation Model experiments run under greenhouse gas stabilization scenarios. We find that TSC occurs latest in low latitudes and in the Arctic, despite these areas steadying at very different absolute warming rates. These broad patterns are robust across multiple General Circulation Model ensembles and alternative definitions of TSC. These results indicate large regional differences in the trajectory of climate change in coming centuries. ©2019. The Authors. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T11:42:29Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/125249 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T11:42:29Z |
| publishDate | 2020 |
| publisher | American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1252492022-10-01T05:27:12Z Time of steady climate change Lickley, Megan Jeramaz Cael, B. B. Solomon, Susan Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Under an emission scenario where atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized, previous work suggests that on centennial time scales the rate of global temperature increases would steady at significantly lower rates than those of the 21st century. As climate change is not globally uniform, regional differences in achieving this steady rate of warming can be expected. Here, we define a “Time of Steady Change” (TSC) as the time of reaching this steady rate of warming, and we present a method for estimating TSC with the use of General Circulation Model experiments run under greenhouse gas stabilization scenarios. We find that TSC occurs latest in low latitudes and in the Arctic, despite these areas steadying at very different absolute warming rates. These broad patterns are robust across multiple General Circulation Model ensembles and alternative definitions of TSC. These results indicate large regional differences in the trajectory of climate change in coming centuries. ©2019. The Authors. Callahan‐Dee fellowship NASA (grant no. NNX16AR47G) 2020-05-14T19:42:24Z 2020-05-14T19:42:24Z 2019-04 2018-12 2020-05-06T16:38:23Z Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 1944-8007 https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/125249 Lickley, Megan et. al., "Time of steady climate change." Geophysical Research Letters 46, 10 (April 2019): 5445-51 doi. 10.1029/2018GL081704 ©2019 Authors en 10.1029/2018GL081704 Geophysical Research Letters Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ application/pdf American Geophysical Union (AGU) American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
| spellingShingle | Lickley, Megan Jeramaz Cael, B. B. Solomon, Susan Time of steady climate change |
| title | Time of steady climate change |
| title_full | Time of steady climate change |
| title_fullStr | Time of steady climate change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Time of steady climate change |
| title_short | Time of steady climate change |
| title_sort | time of steady climate change |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/125249 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT lickleymeganjeramaz timeofsteadyclimatechange AT caelbb timeofsteadyclimatechange AT solomonsusan timeofsteadyclimatechange |