Policy and Performance in the New Deal Realignment: Evidence from Old Data and New Methods
Recent research has challenged the policy bases of the New Deal realignment, arguing that it was instead driven by retrospective evaluations of the economy. Using a comprehensive analysis of opinion polls conducted in 1936–52, we argue that policy preferences were far from irrelevant. At the individ...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
University of Chicago Press
2020
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| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/126018 |
| _version_ | 1826196389277728768 |
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| author | Caughey, Devin Dougal, Michael C. Schickler, Eric |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Political Science |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Political Science Caughey, Devin Dougal, Michael C. Schickler, Eric |
| author_sort | Caughey, Devin |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Recent research has challenged the policy bases of the New Deal realignment, arguing that it was instead driven by retrospective evaluations of the economy. Using a comprehensive analysis of opinion polls conducted in 1936–52, we argue that policy preferences were far from irrelevant. At the individual level, presidential Republicans who became Democrats were much more supportive of New Deal policies than those who remained loyal (vice versa for Democrats). At the state level, both public support for the New Deal—as measured by a group-level item response model—and income growth predict pro-Democratic shifts in presidential elections. In short, the realignment was rooted in both policy preferences and economic retrospection. Moreover, mass support for the New Deal, unlike partisan identification, was a leading indicator of long-term electoral trends, predicting presidential elections decades in the future even better than it does contemporaneous elections. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T10:26:05Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/126018 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T10:26:05Z |
| publishDate | 2020 |
| publisher | University of Chicago Press |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1260182024-06-25T18:28:44Z Policy and Performance in the New Deal Realignment: Evidence from Old Data and New Methods Caughey, Devin Dougal, Michael C. Schickler, Eric Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Political Science Recent research has challenged the policy bases of the New Deal realignment, arguing that it was instead driven by retrospective evaluations of the economy. Using a comprehensive analysis of opinion polls conducted in 1936–52, we argue that policy preferences were far from irrelevant. At the individual level, presidential Republicans who became Democrats were much more supportive of New Deal policies than those who remained loyal (vice versa for Democrats). At the state level, both public support for the New Deal—as measured by a group-level item response model—and income growth predict pro-Democratic shifts in presidential elections. In short, the realignment was rooted in both policy preferences and economic retrospection. Moreover, mass support for the New Deal, unlike partisan identification, was a leading indicator of long-term electoral trends, predicting presidential elections decades in the future even better than it does contemporaneous elections. 2020-06-29T19:59:58Z 2020-06-29T19:59:58Z 2020-04 2020-06-09T17:04:52Z Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 0022-3816 1468-2508 https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/126018 Caughey, Devin et al. "Policy and Performance in the New Deal Realignment: Evidence from Old Data and New Methods." Journal of Politics 82, 2 (April 2020): 494-508 © 2020 Southern Political Science Association en http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/707305 Journal of Politics Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use. application/pdf University of Chicago Press University of Chicago Press |
| spellingShingle | Caughey, Devin Dougal, Michael C. Schickler, Eric Policy and Performance in the New Deal Realignment: Evidence from Old Data and New Methods |
| title | Policy and Performance in the New Deal Realignment: Evidence from Old Data and New Methods |
| title_full | Policy and Performance in the New Deal Realignment: Evidence from Old Data and New Methods |
| title_fullStr | Policy and Performance in the New Deal Realignment: Evidence from Old Data and New Methods |
| title_full_unstemmed | Policy and Performance in the New Deal Realignment: Evidence from Old Data and New Methods |
| title_short | Policy and Performance in the New Deal Realignment: Evidence from Old Data and New Methods |
| title_sort | policy and performance in the new deal realignment evidence from old data and new methods |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/126018 |
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