Data from the COVID-19 epidemic in Florida suggest that younger cohorts have been transmitting their infections to less socially mobile older adults
We analyzed the daily incidence of newly reported COVID-19 cases among adults aged 20–39 years, 40–59 years, and 60 or more years in the sixteen most populous counties of the state of Florida from March 1 through June 27, 2020. In all 16 counties, an increase in reported COVID-19 case incidence was...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Springer Science and Business Media LLC
2020
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| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/126751 |
| _version_ | 1811084557733068800 |
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| author | Harris, Jeffrey E |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Economics |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Economics Harris, Jeffrey E |
| author_sort | Harris, Jeffrey E |
| collection | MIT |
| description | We analyzed the daily incidence of newly reported COVID-19 cases among adults aged 20–39 years, 40–59 years, and 60 or more years in the sixteen most populous counties of the state of Florida from March 1 through June 27, 2020. In all 16 counties, an increase in reported COVID-19 case incidence was observed in all three age groups soon after the governor-ordered Full Phase 1 reopening went into effect. Trends in social mobility, but not trends in testing, track case incidence. Data on hospitalization do not support the hypothesis that the observed increase in case incidence was merely the result of liberalization of testing criteria. Parameter estimates from a parsimonious two-group heterogeneous SIR model strongly support the hypothesis that younger persons, having first acquired their infections through increasing social contact with their peers, then transmitted their infections to older, less socially mobile individuals. Without such cross-infection, an isolated epidemic among older people in Florida would be unsustainable. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T12:53:04Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/126751 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T12:53:04Z |
| publishDate | 2020 |
| publisher | Springer Science and Business Media LLC |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1267512022-10-01T11:43:25Z Data from the COVID-19 epidemic in Florida suggest that younger cohorts have been transmitting their infections to less socially mobile older adults Harris, Jeffrey E Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Economics We analyzed the daily incidence of newly reported COVID-19 cases among adults aged 20–39 years, 40–59 years, and 60 or more years in the sixteen most populous counties of the state of Florida from March 1 through June 27, 2020. In all 16 counties, an increase in reported COVID-19 case incidence was observed in all three age groups soon after the governor-ordered Full Phase 1 reopening went into effect. Trends in social mobility, but not trends in testing, track case incidence. Data on hospitalization do not support the hypothesis that the observed increase in case incidence was merely the result of liberalization of testing criteria. Parameter estimates from a parsimonious two-group heterogeneous SIR model strongly support the hypothesis that younger persons, having first acquired their infections through increasing social contact with their peers, then transmitted their infections to older, less socially mobile individuals. Without such cross-infection, an isolated epidemic among older people in Florida would be unsustainable. 2020-08-24T15:52:26Z 2020-08-24T15:52:26Z 2020-08 2020-08 2020-08-23T03:19:02Z Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 1569-5239 1573-7152 https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/126751 Harris, Jeffrey E. "Data from the COVID-19 epidemic in Florida suggest that younger cohorts have been transmitting their infections to less socially mobile older adults." Review of Economics of the Household (August 2020): dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11150-020-09496-w © 2020 Springer Nature en http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11150-020-09496-w Review of Economics of the Household Creative Commons Attribution https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ The Author(s) application/pdf Springer Science and Business Media LLC Springer US |
| spellingShingle | Harris, Jeffrey E Data from the COVID-19 epidemic in Florida suggest that younger cohorts have been transmitting their infections to less socially mobile older adults |
| title | Data from the COVID-19 epidemic in Florida suggest that younger cohorts have been transmitting their infections to less socially mobile older adults |
| title_full | Data from the COVID-19 epidemic in Florida suggest that younger cohorts have been transmitting their infections to less socially mobile older adults |
| title_fullStr | Data from the COVID-19 epidemic in Florida suggest that younger cohorts have been transmitting their infections to less socially mobile older adults |
| title_full_unstemmed | Data from the COVID-19 epidemic in Florida suggest that younger cohorts have been transmitting their infections to less socially mobile older adults |
| title_short | Data from the COVID-19 epidemic in Florida suggest that younger cohorts have been transmitting their infections to less socially mobile older adults |
| title_sort | data from the covid 19 epidemic in florida suggest that younger cohorts have been transmitting their infections to less socially mobile older adults |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/126751 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT harrisjeffreye datafromthecovid19epidemicinfloridasuggestthatyoungercohortshavebeentransmittingtheirinfectionstolesssociallymobileolderadults |