Rising future tropical cyclone-induced extreme winds in the Mekong River Basin
The societal impact of extreme winds induced by tropical cyclones (TCs) is a major concern in the Mekong River Basin (MRB). Though no clear trend of landfalling TC intensity along the Vietnam coastline has been observed since the 1970s, climate models project an increasing TC intensity in the 21st c...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier BV
2020
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| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/127262 |
| _version_ | 1826213642502144000 |
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| author | Chen, Aifang Emanuel, Kerry Andrew Chen, Deliang Lin, Changgui Zhang, Fuqing |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Chen, Aifang Emanuel, Kerry Andrew Chen, Deliang Lin, Changgui Zhang, Fuqing |
| author_sort | Chen, Aifang |
| collection | MIT |
| description | The societal impact of extreme winds induced by tropical cyclones (TCs) is a major concern in the Mekong River Basin (MRB). Though no clear trend of landfalling TC intensity along the Vietnam coastline has been observed since the 1970s, climate models project an increasing TC intensity in the 21st century over the Western North Pacific, which is the primary TC source region influencing the MRB. Yet, how future TC activities will affect extreme winds quantitatively in the MRB remains unclear. By employing a novel dynamical downscaling technique using a specialized, coupled ocean-atmospheric model, shorter return periods of maximum wind speed in the MRB for 2081–2100 compared with 1981–2000 are projected based on five global climate models under the RCP8.5 scenario, suggesting increases in the future tropical cyclone intensity. The results point to consistently elevated future TC-related risks that may jeopardize sustainable development, disrupt food supply, and exacerbate conflicts in the region and beyond. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T15:52:31Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/127262 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T15:52:31Z |
| publishDate | 2020 |
| publisher | Elsevier BV |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1272622022-09-29T16:45:42Z Rising future tropical cyclone-induced extreme winds in the Mekong River Basin Chen, Aifang Emanuel, Kerry Andrew Chen, Deliang Lin, Changgui Zhang, Fuqing Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences The societal impact of extreme winds induced by tropical cyclones (TCs) is a major concern in the Mekong River Basin (MRB). Though no clear trend of landfalling TC intensity along the Vietnam coastline has been observed since the 1970s, climate models project an increasing TC intensity in the 21st century over the Western North Pacific, which is the primary TC source region influencing the MRB. Yet, how future TC activities will affect extreme winds quantitatively in the MRB remains unclear. By employing a novel dynamical downscaling technique using a specialized, coupled ocean-atmospheric model, shorter return periods of maximum wind speed in the MRB for 2081–2100 compared with 1981–2000 are projected based on five global climate models under the RCP8.5 scenario, suggesting increases in the future tropical cyclone intensity. The results point to consistently elevated future TC-related risks that may jeopardize sustainable development, disrupt food supply, and exacerbate conflicts in the region and beyond. 2020-09-14T20:44:45Z 2020-09-14T20:44:45Z 2020-03 2019-11 2020-04-16T18:23:41Z Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 2095-9273 https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/127262 Chen, Aifang et al. "Rising future tropical cyclone-induced extreme winds in the Mekong River Basin." Science Bulletin 65, 5 (March 2020): 419-424 © 2019 Science China Press en http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2019.11.022 Science Bulletin Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ application/pdf Elsevier BV Elsevier |
| spellingShingle | Chen, Aifang Emanuel, Kerry Andrew Chen, Deliang Lin, Changgui Zhang, Fuqing Rising future tropical cyclone-induced extreme winds in the Mekong River Basin |
| title | Rising future tropical cyclone-induced extreme winds in the Mekong River Basin |
| title_full | Rising future tropical cyclone-induced extreme winds in the Mekong River Basin |
| title_fullStr | Rising future tropical cyclone-induced extreme winds in the Mekong River Basin |
| title_full_unstemmed | Rising future tropical cyclone-induced extreme winds in the Mekong River Basin |
| title_short | Rising future tropical cyclone-induced extreme winds in the Mekong River Basin |
| title_sort | rising future tropical cyclone induced extreme winds in the mekong river basin |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/127262 |
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