Initial economic damage from the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States is more widespread across ages and geographies than initial mortality impacts
The economic and mortality impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic have been widely discussed, but there is limited evidence on their relationship across demographic and geographic groups. We use publicly available monthly data from January 2011 through April 2020 on all-cause death counts from the Centers...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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National Academy of Sciences
2020
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| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/128204 |
| _version_ | 1811075746458763264 |
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| author | Polyakova, Maria Kocks, Geoffrey D Udalova, Victoria Finkelstein, Amy |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Economics |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Economics Polyakova, Maria Kocks, Geoffrey D Udalova, Victoria Finkelstein, Amy |
| author_sort | Polyakova, Maria |
| collection | MIT |
| description | The economic and mortality impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic have been widely discussed, but there is limited evidence on their relationship across demographic and geographic groups. We use publicly available monthly data from January 2011 through April 2020 on all-cause death counts from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and employment from the Current Population Survey to estimate excess all-cause mortality and employment displacement in April 2020 in the United States. We report results nationally and separately by state and by age group. Nationally, excess all-cause mortality was 2.4 per 10,000 individuals (about 30% higher than reported COVID deaths in April) and employment displacement was 9.9 per 100 individuals. Across age groups 25 y and older, excess mortality was negatively correlated with economic damage; excess mortality was largest among the oldest (individuals 85 y and over: 39.0 per 10,000), while employment displacement was largest among the youngest (individuals 25 to 44 y: 11.6 per 100 individuals). Across states, employment displacement was positively correlated with excess mortality (correlation = 0.29). However, mortality was highly concentrated geographically, with the top two states (New York and New Jersey) each experiencing over 10 excess deaths per 10,000 and accounting for about half of national excess mortality. By contrast, employment displacement was more geographically spread, with the states with the largest point estimates (Nevada and Michigan) each experiencing over 16 percentage points employment displacement but accounting for only 7% of the national displacement. These results suggest that policy responses may differentially affect generations and geographies. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T10:11:13Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/128204 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T10:11:13Z |
| publishDate | 2020 |
| publisher | National Academy of Sciences |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1282042022-09-26T16:17:03Z Initial economic damage from the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States is more widespread across ages and geographies than initial mortality impacts Polyakova, Maria Kocks, Geoffrey D Udalova, Victoria Finkelstein, Amy Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Economics The economic and mortality impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic have been widely discussed, but there is limited evidence on their relationship across demographic and geographic groups. We use publicly available monthly data from January 2011 through April 2020 on all-cause death counts from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and employment from the Current Population Survey to estimate excess all-cause mortality and employment displacement in April 2020 in the United States. We report results nationally and separately by state and by age group. Nationally, excess all-cause mortality was 2.4 per 10,000 individuals (about 30% higher than reported COVID deaths in April) and employment displacement was 9.9 per 100 individuals. Across age groups 25 y and older, excess mortality was negatively correlated with economic damage; excess mortality was largest among the oldest (individuals 85 y and over: 39.0 per 10,000), while employment displacement was largest among the youngest (individuals 25 to 44 y: 11.6 per 100 individuals). Across states, employment displacement was positively correlated with excess mortality (correlation = 0.29). However, mortality was highly concentrated geographically, with the top two states (New York and New Jersey) each experiencing over 10 excess deaths per 10,000 and accounting for about half of national excess mortality. By contrast, employment displacement was more geographically spread, with the states with the largest point estimates (Nevada and Michigan) each experiencing over 16 percentage points employment displacement but accounting for only 7% of the national displacement. These results suggest that policy responses may differentially affect generations and geographies. 2020-10-26T19:09:36Z 2020-10-26T19:09:36Z 2020-10 2020-07 2020-10-26T14:56:36Z Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 0027-8424 1091-6490 https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/128204 Polyakova, Maria et al. "Initial economic damage from the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States is more widespread across ages and geographies than initial mortality impacts." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (October 2020): dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2014279117 © 2020 The Author(s) en http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2014279117 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use. application/pdf National Academy of Sciences PNAS |
| spellingShingle | Polyakova, Maria Kocks, Geoffrey D Udalova, Victoria Finkelstein, Amy Initial economic damage from the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States is more widespread across ages and geographies than initial mortality impacts |
| title | Initial economic damage from the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States is more widespread across ages and geographies than initial mortality impacts |
| title_full | Initial economic damage from the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States is more widespread across ages and geographies than initial mortality impacts |
| title_fullStr | Initial economic damage from the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States is more widespread across ages and geographies than initial mortality impacts |
| title_full_unstemmed | Initial economic damage from the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States is more widespread across ages and geographies than initial mortality impacts |
| title_short | Initial economic damage from the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States is more widespread across ages and geographies than initial mortality impacts |
| title_sort | initial economic damage from the covid 19 pandemic in the united states is more widespread across ages and geographies than initial mortality impacts |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/128204 |
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