Decadal Attribution of Historic Temperature and Ocean Heat Content Change to Anthropogenic Emissions
We present an alternative method of calculating the historical effective radiative forcing using the observed temperature record and a kernel based on the 5th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) temperature response. This estimate is the effective radiative forcing time series that the ave...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
2020
|
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/128243 |
| _version_ | 1826210996918681600 |
|---|---|
| author | Larson, E. J. L. Portmann, R. W. Solomon, Susan Murphy, D. M. |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Larson, E. J. L. Portmann, R. W. Solomon, Susan Murphy, D. M. |
| author_sort | Larson, E. J. L. |
| collection | MIT |
| description | We present an alternative method of calculating the historical effective radiative forcing using the observed temperature record and a kernel based on the 5th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) temperature response. This estimate is the effective radiative forcing time series that the average climate model would need to simulate the observed global mean surface temperature anomalies. We further infer the anthropogenic aerosols radiative forcing as a residual using the better-known greenhouse gas radiative forcing. This allows an independent estimate of anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing, which suggests a cooling influence due to aerosols in the early part of the twentieth century. The temporal kernels are also used to calculate decadal contributions from the dominant forcing agents to present-day temperature, ocean heat content, and thermosteric sea level rise. The current global mean temperature anomaly is dominated by emissions in the past two decades, while current ocean heat content is more strongly affected by earlier decades. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T14:59:05Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/128243 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T14:59:05Z |
| publishDate | 2020 |
| publisher | American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1282432022-10-01T23:45:37Z Decadal Attribution of Historic Temperature and Ocean Heat Content Change to Anthropogenic Emissions Larson, E. J. L. Portmann, R. W. Solomon, Susan Murphy, D. M. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences We present an alternative method of calculating the historical effective radiative forcing using the observed temperature record and a kernel based on the 5th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) temperature response. This estimate is the effective radiative forcing time series that the average climate model would need to simulate the observed global mean surface temperature anomalies. We further infer the anthropogenic aerosols radiative forcing as a residual using the better-known greenhouse gas radiative forcing. This allows an independent estimate of anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing, which suggests a cooling influence due to aerosols in the early part of the twentieth century. The temporal kernels are also used to calculate decadal contributions from the dominant forcing agents to present-day temperature, ocean heat content, and thermosteric sea level rise. The current global mean temperature anomaly is dominated by emissions in the past two decades, while current ocean heat content is more strongly affected by earlier decades. NSF (Grant 1848863) 2020-10-29T15:23:28Z 2020-10-29T15:23:28Z 2020-02 2019-12 2020-05-06T16:52:38Z Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 0094-8276 1944-8007 https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/128243 Larson, E. J. L. et al. "Decadal Attribution of Historic Temperature and Ocean Heat Content Change to Anthropogenic Emissions." Geophysical Research Letters 47, 3 (February 2020): e2019GL085905 © 2020 American Geophysical Union en http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2019gl085905 Geophysical Research Letters Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ application/pdf American Geophysical Union (AGU) arXiv |
| spellingShingle | Larson, E. J. L. Portmann, R. W. Solomon, Susan Murphy, D. M. Decadal Attribution of Historic Temperature and Ocean Heat Content Change to Anthropogenic Emissions |
| title | Decadal Attribution of Historic Temperature and Ocean Heat Content Change to Anthropogenic Emissions |
| title_full | Decadal Attribution of Historic Temperature and Ocean Heat Content Change to Anthropogenic Emissions |
| title_fullStr | Decadal Attribution of Historic Temperature and Ocean Heat Content Change to Anthropogenic Emissions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Decadal Attribution of Historic Temperature and Ocean Heat Content Change to Anthropogenic Emissions |
| title_short | Decadal Attribution of Historic Temperature and Ocean Heat Content Change to Anthropogenic Emissions |
| title_sort | decadal attribution of historic temperature and ocean heat content change to anthropogenic emissions |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/128243 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT larsonejl decadalattributionofhistorictemperatureandoceanheatcontentchangetoanthropogenicemissions AT portmannrw decadalattributionofhistorictemperatureandoceanheatcontentchangetoanthropogenicemissions AT solomonsusan decadalattributionofhistorictemperatureandoceanheatcontentchangetoanthropogenicemissions AT murphydm decadalattributionofhistorictemperatureandoceanheatcontentchangetoanthropogenicemissions |