The Diffusion of Alternative Fuel Vehicles: A Generalised Model and Future Research Agenda
The rapid decarbonisation of transportation is critical if global efforts to mitigate the worst possible impacts of anthropogenic climate change are to be successful. Transportation is a leading sectoral contributor of greenhouse gas emissions, and demand for transportation continues to grow globall...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Informa UK Limited
2021
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| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/130155 |
| _version_ | 1826212534485516288 |
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| author | Keith, David Ross Struben, Jeroen J.R. Naumov, Sergey A |
| author2 | Sloan School of Management |
| author_facet | Sloan School of Management Keith, David Ross Struben, Jeroen J.R. Naumov, Sergey A |
| author_sort | Keith, David Ross |
| collection | MIT |
| description | The rapid decarbonisation of transportation is critical if global efforts to mitigate the worst possible impacts of anthropogenic climate change are to be successful. Transportation is a leading sectoral contributor of greenhouse gas emissions, and demand for transportation continues to grow globally. Alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) powered by fuels such as electricity, hydrogen, and biofuels promise to mitigate the environmental impacts of automotive transportation, including urban air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. However, multiple barriers to AFV diffusion exist, including low consumer acceptance, high vehicle costs, and a lack of refuelling infrastructure, meaning that sophisticated policies and strategies will be needed to achieve an AFV market transition that is both ecologically and economically sustainable. While more EVs were sold in 2018 than ever before, these sales were the result of aggressive policy support in places such as China and Norway, and it is not clear that EV sales would persist at this level if these policies were removed. In this paper, we present and make freely available a generalised model of AFV diffusion that is flexible for the exploration of these critical policy questions, building on recent AFV diffusion literature from system dynamics and related fields. We demonstrate using illustrative scenarios the fragility of AFV diffusion, with a range of behaviour modes possible depending on the structure of the market and the actions of stakeholders. Finally, we identify a number of contemporary research topics of interest to automotive manufacturers and policymakers that can be addressed using the model. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T15:24:22Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/130155 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T15:24:22Z |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publisher | Informa UK Limited |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1301552022-09-29T14:37:31Z The Diffusion of Alternative Fuel Vehicles: A Generalised Model and Future Research Agenda Keith, David Ross Struben, Jeroen J.R. Naumov, Sergey A Sloan School of Management The rapid decarbonisation of transportation is critical if global efforts to mitigate the worst possible impacts of anthropogenic climate change are to be successful. Transportation is a leading sectoral contributor of greenhouse gas emissions, and demand for transportation continues to grow globally. Alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) powered by fuels such as electricity, hydrogen, and biofuels promise to mitigate the environmental impacts of automotive transportation, including urban air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. However, multiple barriers to AFV diffusion exist, including low consumer acceptance, high vehicle costs, and a lack of refuelling infrastructure, meaning that sophisticated policies and strategies will be needed to achieve an AFV market transition that is both ecologically and economically sustainable. While more EVs were sold in 2018 than ever before, these sales were the result of aggressive policy support in places such as China and Norway, and it is not clear that EV sales would persist at this level if these policies were removed. In this paper, we present and make freely available a generalised model of AFV diffusion that is flexible for the exploration of these critical policy questions, building on recent AFV diffusion literature from system dynamics and related fields. We demonstrate using illustrative scenarios the fragility of AFV diffusion, with a range of behaviour modes possible depending on the structure of the market and the actions of stakeholders. Finally, we identify a number of contemporary research topics of interest to automotive manufacturers and policymakers that can be addressed using the model. 2021-03-17T14:46:27Z 2021-03-17T14:46:27Z 2020-01 2019-03 2021-03-15T16:52:07Z Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 1747-7778 1747-7786 https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/130155 Keith, David R. et al. "The Diffusion of Alternative Fuel Vehicles: A Generalised Model and Future Research Agenda." Journal of Simulation 14, 4 (January 2020): 260-277 © 2020 Operational Research Society en http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17477778.2019.1708219 Journal of Simulation Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ application/pdf Informa UK Limited Prof. Keith |
| spellingShingle | Keith, David Ross Struben, Jeroen J.R. Naumov, Sergey A The Diffusion of Alternative Fuel Vehicles: A Generalised Model and Future Research Agenda |
| title | The Diffusion of Alternative Fuel Vehicles: A Generalised Model and Future Research Agenda |
| title_full | The Diffusion of Alternative Fuel Vehicles: A Generalised Model and Future Research Agenda |
| title_fullStr | The Diffusion of Alternative Fuel Vehicles: A Generalised Model and Future Research Agenda |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Diffusion of Alternative Fuel Vehicles: A Generalised Model and Future Research Agenda |
| title_short | The Diffusion of Alternative Fuel Vehicles: A Generalised Model and Future Research Agenda |
| title_sort | diffusion of alternative fuel vehicles a generalised model and future research agenda |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/130155 |
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