No COVID-19 climate silver lining in the US power sector
Recent studies conclude that the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic decreased power sector CO₂ emissions globally and in the United States. In this paper, we analyze the statistical significance of CO₂ emissions reductions in the U.S. power sector from March through December 2020. We use Gaussia...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Article |
| Published: |
2021
|
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/131156 |
| _version_ | 1826212432135061504 |
|---|---|
| author | Luke, Max Somani, Priyanshi Cotterman, Turner Suri, Dhruv Lee, Stephen J. |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science Luke, Max Somani, Priyanshi Cotterman, Turner Suri, Dhruv Lee, Stephen J. |
| author_sort | Luke, Max |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Recent studies conclude that the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic decreased power sector CO₂ emissions globally and in the United States. In this paper, we analyze the statistical significance of CO₂ emissions reductions in the U.S. power sector from March through December 2020. We use Gaussian process (GP) regression to assess whether CO₂ emissions reductions would have occurred with reasonable probability in the absence of COVID-19 considering uncertainty due to factors unrelated to the pandemic and adjusting for weather, seasonality, and recent emissions trends. We find that monthly CO₂ emissions reductions are only statistically significant in April and May 2020 considering hypothesis tests at 5% significance levels. Separately, we consider the potential impact of COVID-19 on coal-fired power plant retirements through 2022. We find that only a small percentage of U.S. coal power plants are at risk of retirement due to a possible COVID-19-related sustained reduction in electricity demand and prices. We observe and anticipate a return to pre-COVID-19 CO₂ emissions in the U.S. power sector. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T15:21:36Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/131156 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T15:21:36Z |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1311562022-09-29T14:28:49Z No COVID-19 climate silver lining in the US power sector Luke, Max Somani, Priyanshi Cotterman, Turner Suri, Dhruv Lee, Stephen J. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science Recent studies conclude that the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic decreased power sector CO₂ emissions globally and in the United States. In this paper, we analyze the statistical significance of CO₂ emissions reductions in the U.S. power sector from March through December 2020. We use Gaussian process (GP) regression to assess whether CO₂ emissions reductions would have occurred with reasonable probability in the absence of COVID-19 considering uncertainty due to factors unrelated to the pandemic and adjusting for weather, seasonality, and recent emissions trends. We find that monthly CO₂ emissions reductions are only statistically significant in April and May 2020 considering hypothesis tests at 5% significance levels. Separately, we consider the potential impact of COVID-19 on coal-fired power plant retirements through 2022. We find that only a small percentage of U.S. coal power plants are at risk of retirement due to a possible COVID-19-related sustained reduction in electricity demand and prices. We observe and anticipate a return to pre-COVID-19 CO₂ emissions in the U.S. power sector. 2021-08-09T22:22:30Z 2021-08-09T22:22:30Z 2021-08 2020-08 Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 2041-1723 https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/131156 Luke, Max et al. "No COVID-19 climate silver lining in the US power sector." Nature Communications 12 (August 2021): 4675. © 2021 The Author(s) https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24959-z Nature Communications Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ application/pdf Nature |
| spellingShingle | Luke, Max Somani, Priyanshi Cotterman, Turner Suri, Dhruv Lee, Stephen J. No COVID-19 climate silver lining in the US power sector |
| title | No COVID-19 climate silver lining in the US power sector |
| title_full | No COVID-19 climate silver lining in the US power sector |
| title_fullStr | No COVID-19 climate silver lining in the US power sector |
| title_full_unstemmed | No COVID-19 climate silver lining in the US power sector |
| title_short | No COVID-19 climate silver lining in the US power sector |
| title_sort | no covid 19 climate silver lining in the us power sector |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/131156 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT lukemax nocovid19climatesilverliningintheuspowersector AT somanipriyanshi nocovid19climatesilverliningintheuspowersector AT cottermanturner nocovid19climatesilverliningintheuspowersector AT suridhruv nocovid19climatesilverliningintheuspowersector AT leestephenj nocovid19climatesilverliningintheuspowersector |