The Meaning of “Intermittency” in Criminal Careers

Abstract Background Van Koppen, Rodermund, and Blokland recently published an article in this journal entitled “Waxing and waning: periods of intermittency in criminal careers.” We are concerned that this article will cause confusion in criminal career research because they use the word “intermi...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Farrington, David P, Barnett, Arnold, Blumstein, Alfred
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Springer International Publishing 2021
Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/131929
Description
Summary:Abstract Background Van Koppen, Rodermund, and Blokland recently published an article in this journal entitled “Waxing and waning: periods of intermittency in criminal careers.” We are concerned that this article will cause confusion in criminal career research because they use the word “intermittency” to refer to time intervals between convictions. Purpose We are happy to recognise that their article contributes to knowledge about time intervals between convictions, but we believe that the term “intermittency” should refer to time intervals between two criminal careers when the underlying rate of offending—termed the underlying “criminal inclination” by Van Koppen et al.—is zero. Method In order to study intermittency, it is important to test probabilistic models of criminal careers. Conclusion To the extent that there is intermittency, it is desirable to investigate why individuals stop offending, why they maintain a zero-rate of offending for some time, and why they restart offending. We believe that it is also important to study the possibility of waxing and waning in criminal careers, by testing whether the underlying rate of offending during the active criminal career stays constant or varies over time.