Atmospheric Density Uncertainty Quantification for Satellite Conjunction Assessment
Conjunction assessment requires knowledge of the uncertainty in the predicted orbit. Errors in the atmospheric density are a major source of error in the prediction of low Earth orbits. Therefore, accurate estimation of the density and quantification of the uncertainty in the density is required. Mo...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA)
2021
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| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/135446 |
| _version_ | 1811078717000122368 |
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| author | Gondelach, David J Linares, Richard |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics Gondelach, David J Linares, Richard |
| author_sort | Gondelach, David J |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Conjunction assessment requires knowledge of the uncertainty in the predicted orbit. Errors in the atmospheric density are a major source of error in the prediction of low Earth orbits. Therefore, accurate estimation of the density and quantification of the uncertainty in the density is required. Most atmospheric density models, however, do not provide an estimate of the uncertainty in the density. In this work, we present a new approach to quantify uncertainties in the density and to include these for calculating the probability of collision P . For this, we employ a recently developed dynamic reduced-order density model that enables efficient prediction of the thermospheric density. First, the model is used to obtain accurate estimates of the density and of the uncertainty in the estimates. Second, the density uncertainties are propagated forward simultaneously with orbit propagation to include the density uncertainties for P calculation. For this, we account for the effect of cross-correlation in position uncertainties due to density errors on the P . Finally, the effect of density uncertainties and cross-correlation on the P is assessed. The presented approach provides the distinctive capability to quantify the uncertainty in atmospheric density and to include this uncertainty for conjunction assessment while taking into account the dependence of the density errors on location and time. In addition, the results show that it is important to consider the effect of cross-correlation on the P , because ignoring this effect can result in severe underestimation of the collision probability. c c c c c |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T11:04:20Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/135446 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T11:04:20Z |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publisher | American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1354462023-02-23T21:07:26Z Atmospheric Density Uncertainty Quantification for Satellite Conjunction Assessment Gondelach, David J Linares, Richard Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics Conjunction assessment requires knowledge of the uncertainty in the predicted orbit. Errors in the atmospheric density are a major source of error in the prediction of low Earth orbits. Therefore, accurate estimation of the density and quantification of the uncertainty in the density is required. Most atmospheric density models, however, do not provide an estimate of the uncertainty in the density. In this work, we present a new approach to quantify uncertainties in the density and to include these for calculating the probability of collision P . For this, we employ a recently developed dynamic reduced-order density model that enables efficient prediction of the thermospheric density. First, the model is used to obtain accurate estimates of the density and of the uncertainty in the estimates. Second, the density uncertainties are propagated forward simultaneously with orbit propagation to include the density uncertainties for P calculation. For this, we account for the effect of cross-correlation in position uncertainties due to density errors on the P . Finally, the effect of density uncertainties and cross-correlation on the P is assessed. The presented approach provides the distinctive capability to quantify the uncertainty in atmospheric density and to include this uncertainty for conjunction assessment while taking into account the dependence of the density errors on location and time. In addition, the results show that it is important to consider the effect of cross-correlation on the P , because ignoring this effect can result in severe underestimation of the collision probability. c c c c c 2021-10-27T20:23:30Z 2021-10-27T20:23:30Z 2020 2021-05-06T14:28:23Z Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/ConferencePaper https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/135446 en 10.2514/6.2020-0232 AIAA Scitech 2020 Forum Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ application/pdf American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) arXiv |
| spellingShingle | Gondelach, David J Linares, Richard Atmospheric Density Uncertainty Quantification for Satellite Conjunction Assessment |
| title | Atmospheric Density Uncertainty Quantification for Satellite Conjunction Assessment |
| title_full | Atmospheric Density Uncertainty Quantification for Satellite Conjunction Assessment |
| title_fullStr | Atmospheric Density Uncertainty Quantification for Satellite Conjunction Assessment |
| title_full_unstemmed | Atmospheric Density Uncertainty Quantification for Satellite Conjunction Assessment |
| title_short | Atmospheric Density Uncertainty Quantification for Satellite Conjunction Assessment |
| title_sort | atmospheric density uncertainty quantification for satellite conjunction assessment |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/135446 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT gondelachdavidj atmosphericdensityuncertaintyquantificationforsatelliteconjunctionassessment AT linaresrichard atmosphericdensityuncertaintyquantificationforsatelliteconjunctionassessment |