Joint inference of CFC lifetimes and banks suggests previously unidentified emissions
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are harmful ozone depleting substances and greenhouse gases. CFC production was phased-out under the Montreal Protocol, however recent studies suggest new and unexpected emissions of CFC-11. Quantifying CFC emissio...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
2021
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| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/135679 |
| _version_ | 1826215422868848640 |
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| author | Lickley, Megan Fletcher, Sarah Rigby, Matt Solomon, Susan |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Lickley, Megan Fletcher, Sarah Rigby, Matt Solomon, Susan |
| author_sort | Lickley, Megan |
| collection | MIT |
| description | <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are harmful ozone depleting substances and greenhouse gases. CFC production was phased-out under the Montreal Protocol, however recent studies suggest new and unexpected emissions of CFC-11. Quantifying CFC emissions requires accurate estimates of both atmospheric lifetimes and ongoing emissions from old equipment (i.e. ‘banks’). In a Bayesian framework we simultaneously infer lifetimes, banks and emissions of CFC-11, 12 and 113 using available constraints. We find lifetimes of all three gases are likely shorter than currently recommended values, suggesting that best estimates of inferred emissions are larger than recent evaluations. Our analysis indicates that bank emissions are decreasing faster than total emissions, and we estimate new, unexpected emissions during 2014-2016 were 23.2, 18.3, and 7.8 Gg/yr for CFC-11, 12 and 113, respectively. While recent studies have focused on unexpected CFC-11 emissions, our results call for further investigation of potential sources of emissions of CFC-12 and CFC-113, along with CFC-11.</jats:p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T16:28:12Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/135679 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T16:28:12Z |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publisher | Springer Science and Business Media LLC |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1356792023-03-24T19:32:03Z Joint inference of CFC lifetimes and banks suggests previously unidentified emissions Lickley, Megan Fletcher, Sarah Rigby, Matt Solomon, Susan Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are harmful ozone depleting substances and greenhouse gases. CFC production was phased-out under the Montreal Protocol, however recent studies suggest new and unexpected emissions of CFC-11. Quantifying CFC emissions requires accurate estimates of both atmospheric lifetimes and ongoing emissions from old equipment (i.e. ‘banks’). In a Bayesian framework we simultaneously infer lifetimes, banks and emissions of CFC-11, 12 and 113 using available constraints. We find lifetimes of all three gases are likely shorter than currently recommended values, suggesting that best estimates of inferred emissions are larger than recent evaluations. Our analysis indicates that bank emissions are decreasing faster than total emissions, and we estimate new, unexpected emissions during 2014-2016 were 23.2, 18.3, and 7.8 Gg/yr for CFC-11, 12 and 113, respectively. While recent studies have focused on unexpected CFC-11 emissions, our results call for further investigation of potential sources of emissions of CFC-12 and CFC-113, along with CFC-11.</jats:p> 2021-10-27T20:24:36Z 2021-10-27T20:24:36Z 2021 2021-09-22T18:14:30Z Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/135679 en 10.1038/s41467-021-23229-2 Nature Communications Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ application/pdf Springer Science and Business Media LLC Nature |
| spellingShingle | Lickley, Megan Fletcher, Sarah Rigby, Matt Solomon, Susan Joint inference of CFC lifetimes and banks suggests previously unidentified emissions |
| title | Joint inference of CFC lifetimes and banks suggests previously unidentified emissions |
| title_full | Joint inference of CFC lifetimes and banks suggests previously unidentified emissions |
| title_fullStr | Joint inference of CFC lifetimes and banks suggests previously unidentified emissions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Joint inference of CFC lifetimes and banks suggests previously unidentified emissions |
| title_short | Joint inference of CFC lifetimes and banks suggests previously unidentified emissions |
| title_sort | joint inference of cfc lifetimes and banks suggests previously unidentified emissions |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/135679 |
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