Uncertainty quantification of ocean parameterizations: application to the K‐Profile‐Parameterization for penetrative convection

Uncertainty quantification of ocean parameterizations: application to the K‐Profile‐Parameterization for penetrative convection

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©2020. The Authors. Parameterizations of unresolved turbulent processes often compromise the fidelity of large-scale ocean models. In this work, we argue for a Bayesian approach to the refinement and evaluation of turbulence parameterizations. Using an ensemble of large eddy simulations of turbulent...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Souza, AN, Wagner, GL, Ramadhan, A, Allen, B, Churavy, V, Schloss, J, Campin, J, Hill, C, Edelman, A, Marshall, J, Flierl, G, Ferrari, R
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: American Geophysical Union (AGU) 2021
Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/136064
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Summary:©2020. The Authors. Parameterizations of unresolved turbulent processes often compromise the fidelity of large-scale ocean models. In this work, we argue for a Bayesian approach to the refinement and evaluation of turbulence parameterizations. Using an ensemble of large eddy simulations of turbulent penetrative convection in the surface boundary layer, we demonstrate the method by estimating the uncertainty of parameters in the convective limit of the popular “K-Profile Parameterization.” We uncover structural deficiencies and propose an alternative scaling that overcomes them.

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