Extreme storms in Southwest Asia (Northern Arabian Peninsula) under current and future climates
Abstract Precipitation extremes will generally intensify in response to a warming climate. This robust fingerprint of climate change is of particular concern, resulting in heavy rainfall and devastating floods. Often this intensification is explained as a consequence of the Clausius–C...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
2022
|
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141271 |
| _version_ | 1826216738959654912 |
|---|---|
| author | Tuel, Alexandre Choi, Yeon-Woo AlRukaibi, Duaij Eltahir, Elfatih A. B. |
| author2 | Parsons Laboratory for Environmental Science and Engineering (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) |
| author_facet | Parsons Laboratory for Environmental Science and Engineering (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) Tuel, Alexandre Choi, Yeon-Woo AlRukaibi, Duaij Eltahir, Elfatih A. B. |
| author_sort | Tuel, Alexandre |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Abstract
Precipitation extremes will generally intensify in response to a warming climate. This robust fingerprint of climate change is of particular concern, resulting in heavy rainfall and devastating floods. Often this intensification is explained as a consequence of the Clausius–Clapeyron law in a warmer world, under constant relative humidity. Here, based on an ensemble of CMIP5 global climate models and high-resolution regional climate simulations, we take the example of Southwest Asia, where extreme storms will intensify beyond the Clausius- Clapeyron scaling, and propose an additional novel mechanism for this region: the unique increase in atmospheric relative humidity over the Arabian Sea and associated deep northward penetration of moisture. This increase in humidity is dictated by changes in circulation over the Indian Ocean. Our proposed mechanism is consistent with the recent, most extreme storm ever observed in the region. Our findings advance a new understanding of natural climate variability in this region, with substantial implications for climate change adaptation of the region’s critical infrastructure. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T16:52:39Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/141271 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T16:52:39Z |
| publishDate | 2022 |
| publisher | Springer Berlin Heidelberg |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1412712023-06-28T18:54:15Z Extreme storms in Southwest Asia (Northern Arabian Peninsula) under current and future climates Tuel, Alexandre Choi, Yeon-Woo AlRukaibi, Duaij Eltahir, Elfatih A. B. Parsons Laboratory for Environmental Science and Engineering (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) Abstract Precipitation extremes will generally intensify in response to a warming climate. This robust fingerprint of climate change is of particular concern, resulting in heavy rainfall and devastating floods. Often this intensification is explained as a consequence of the Clausius–Clapeyron law in a warmer world, under constant relative humidity. Here, based on an ensemble of CMIP5 global climate models and high-resolution regional climate simulations, we take the example of Southwest Asia, where extreme storms will intensify beyond the Clausius- Clapeyron scaling, and propose an additional novel mechanism for this region: the unique increase in atmospheric relative humidity over the Arabian Sea and associated deep northward penetration of moisture. This increase in humidity is dictated by changes in circulation over the Indian Ocean. Our proposed mechanism is consistent with the recent, most extreme storm ever observed in the region. Our findings advance a new understanding of natural climate variability in this region, with substantial implications for climate change adaptation of the region’s critical infrastructure. 2022-03-18T11:51:03Z 2022-03-18T11:51:03Z 2021-09-29 2022-03-18T04:31:32Z Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141271 Tuel, Alexandre, Choi, Yeon-Woo, AlRukaibi, Duaij and Eltahir, Elfatih A. B. 2021. "Extreme storms in Southwest Asia (Northern Arabian Peninsula) under current and future climates." en https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05975-7 Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature application/pdf Springer Berlin Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg |
| spellingShingle | Tuel, Alexandre Choi, Yeon-Woo AlRukaibi, Duaij Eltahir, Elfatih A. B. Extreme storms in Southwest Asia (Northern Arabian Peninsula) under current and future climates |
| title | Extreme storms in Southwest Asia (Northern Arabian Peninsula) under current and future climates |
| title_full | Extreme storms in Southwest Asia (Northern Arabian Peninsula) under current and future climates |
| title_fullStr | Extreme storms in Southwest Asia (Northern Arabian Peninsula) under current and future climates |
| title_full_unstemmed | Extreme storms in Southwest Asia (Northern Arabian Peninsula) under current and future climates |
| title_short | Extreme storms in Southwest Asia (Northern Arabian Peninsula) under current and future climates |
| title_sort | extreme storms in southwest asia northern arabian peninsula under current and future climates |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141271 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT tuelalexandre extremestormsinsouthwestasianorthernarabianpeninsulaundercurrentandfutureclimates AT choiyeonwoo extremestormsinsouthwestasianorthernarabianpeninsulaundercurrentandfutureclimates AT alrukaibiduaij extremestormsinsouthwestasianorthernarabianpeninsulaundercurrentandfutureclimates AT eltahirelfatihab extremestormsinsouthwestasianorthernarabianpeninsulaundercurrentandfutureclimates |