Understanding & Modeling State Stability: Exploiting System Dynamics
The potential loss of state stability in various parts of the world is a source of threat to U.S. national security. Every case is unique, but there are common processes. Accordingly, we develop a system dynamics model of state stability by representing the nature and dynamics of ‘ loads’ generated...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | en_US |
| Published: |
IEEE
2022
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1109/AERO.2006.1656057 https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141493 |
| Summary: | The potential loss of state stability in various parts of the world is a source of threat to U.S. national security. Every case is unique, but there are common processes. Accordingly, we develop a system dynamics model of state stability by representing the nature and dynamics of ‘ loads’ generated by insurgency activities, on the one hand, and by articulating the core features of state resilience and its ‘ capacity’ to withstand these ‘ loads’, on the other. The problem is to determine and ‘ predict’ when threats to stability override the resilience of the state and, more important, to anticipate propensities for ‘ tipping points’, namely conditions under which small changes in anti-regime activity can generate major disruptions. On this basis, we then identify appropriate actionable mitigation factors to decrease the likelihood of ‘ tipping’ and enhance prospects for stability. |
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