Forecasting in international relations: Problems and prospects
The author argues that forecasting is a problem of reasoning, of reducing uncertainty, and of bounded speculation, and she identifies four types of forecasting goals: (1) understanding the unknown (i.e., prophecy), (2) controlling future outcomes, (3) understanding the overall dynamics of a system t...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | en_US |
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© Gorden and Breach Science Publishers Ltd.
2022
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1080/03050627408434390 https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141499 |
| Summary: | The author argues that forecasting is a problem of reasoning, of reducing uncertainty, and of bounded speculation, and she identifies four types of forecasting goals: (1) understanding the unknown (i.e., prophecy), (2) controlling future outcomes, (3) understanding the overall dynamics of a system to appreciate present conditions, and (4) planning for the immediate future. The author then specifies alternative forecasting methodologies, from least to most systematic: normative, exploratory‐projective, model‐based (both statistical and functional), simulation‐based, and artificial intelligence. A forcast may further be anchored in four types of initial conditions: structure, probability, preference, and trends and projections (the most prevalent type today). A forecast may also have various purposes, each with an attendant time frame: retrospective, long range, or short range. Having made a forecast, it may be validated in many ways, including interrogation processes, statistical methods, and comparisons with data. In considering the policy implications of forecasts, the researcher must identify a system's manipulables, the costs of manipulations, and the sensitive points. In conclusion, the author notes some critical imperatives for further developments in international relations forecasting. |
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