Forecasting in international relations: Problems and prospects
The author argues that forecasting is a problem of reasoning, of reducing uncertainty, and of bounded speculation, and she identifies four types of forecasting goals: (1) understanding the unknown (i.e., prophecy), (2) controlling future outcomes, (3) understanding the overall dynamics of a system t...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | en_US |
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© Gorden and Breach Science Publishers Ltd.
2022
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1080/03050627408434390 https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141499 |
| _version_ | 1811094833849171968 |
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| author | Choucri, Nazli |
| author_facet | Choucri, Nazli |
| author_sort | Choucri, Nazli |
| collection | MIT |
| description | The author argues that forecasting is a problem of reasoning, of reducing uncertainty, and of bounded speculation, and she identifies four types of forecasting goals: (1) understanding the unknown (i.e., prophecy), (2) controlling future outcomes, (3) understanding the overall dynamics of a system to appreciate present conditions, and (4) planning for the immediate future. The author then specifies alternative forecasting methodologies, from least to most systematic: normative, exploratory‐projective, model‐based (both statistical and functional), simulation‐based, and artificial intelligence. A forcast may further be anchored in four types of initial conditions: structure, probability, preference, and trends and projections (the most prevalent type today). A forecast may also have various purposes, each with an attendant time frame: retrospective, long range, or short range. Having made a forecast, it may be validated in many ways, including interrogation processes, statistical methods, and comparisons with data. In considering the policy implications of forecasts, the researcher must identify a system's manipulables, the costs of manipulations, and the sensitive points. In conclusion, the author notes some critical imperatives for further developments in international relations forecasting. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T16:06:14Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/141499 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T16:06:14Z |
| publishDate | 2022 |
| publisher | © Gorden and Breach Science Publishers Ltd. |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1414992022-05-05T16:38:04Z Forecasting in international relations: Problems and prospects Choucri, Nazli The author argues that forecasting is a problem of reasoning, of reducing uncertainty, and of bounded speculation, and she identifies four types of forecasting goals: (1) understanding the unknown (i.e., prophecy), (2) controlling future outcomes, (3) understanding the overall dynamics of a system to appreciate present conditions, and (4) planning for the immediate future. The author then specifies alternative forecasting methodologies, from least to most systematic: normative, exploratory‐projective, model‐based (both statistical and functional), simulation‐based, and artificial intelligence. A forcast may further be anchored in four types of initial conditions: structure, probability, preference, and trends and projections (the most prevalent type today). A forecast may also have various purposes, each with an attendant time frame: retrospective, long range, or short range. Having made a forecast, it may be validated in many ways, including interrogation processes, statistical methods, and comparisons with data. In considering the policy implications of forecasts, the researcher must identify a system's manipulables, the costs of manipulations, and the sensitive points. In conclusion, the author notes some critical imperatives for further developments in international relations forecasting. 2022-04-02T13:29:29Z 2022-04-02T13:29:29Z 1974 Article https://doi.org/10.1080/03050627408434390 https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141499 Choucri, N. (1974). Forecasting in international relations: Problems and prospects. International Interactions, 1(2), 63–86. en_US Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 United States http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/us/ application/pdf © Gorden and Breach Science Publishers Ltd. |
| spellingShingle | Choucri, Nazli Forecasting in international relations: Problems and prospects |
| title | Forecasting in international relations: Problems and prospects |
| title_full | Forecasting in international relations: Problems and prospects |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting in international relations: Problems and prospects |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting in international relations: Problems and prospects |
| title_short | Forecasting in international relations: Problems and prospects |
| title_sort | forecasting in international relations problems and prospects |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1080/03050627408434390 https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141499 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT choucrinazli forecastingininternationalrelationsproblemsandprospects |