Threats to sustainability: Simulating conflict within and between nations
Violent conflict is increasingly viewed as a factor related to sustainable development. This article argues, based on the well-established theory of lateral pressure originally proposed by Choucri and North in 1975, that the relationship arises because the same factors that affect sustainable develo...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | en_US |
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© 1998 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
2022
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1727(199822/23)14:2/3%3C129::AID-SDR146%3E3.0.CO;2-6 https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141510 |
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| author | Wils, Annababette Kamiya, Matilde Choucri, Nazli |
| author_facet | Wils, Annababette Kamiya, Matilde Choucri, Nazli |
| author_sort | Wils, Annababette |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Violent conflict is increasingly viewed as a factor related to sustainable development. This article argues, based on the well-established theory of lateral pressure originally proposed by Choucri and North in 1975, that the relationship arises because the same factors that affect sustainable development also influence conflict, namely population, technology, resources, military force, and trade and bargaining, while conflict, in turn, affects these variables. The theory is tested with a system dynamics model that includes international as well as domestic violent conflict, calibrated to seven countries in southern Africa and six OECD countries. The results show a number of situations in which con flict is perpetuated in a cycle that is difficult to break. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T08:10:43Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/141510 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T08:10:43Z |
| publishDate | 2022 |
| publisher | © 1998 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1415102022-05-05T16:35:32Z Threats to sustainability: Simulating conflict within and between nations Wils, Annababette Kamiya, Matilde Choucri, Nazli Violent conflict is increasingly viewed as a factor related to sustainable development. This article argues, based on the well-established theory of lateral pressure originally proposed by Choucri and North in 1975, that the relationship arises because the same factors that affect sustainable development also influence conflict, namely population, technology, resources, military force, and trade and bargaining, while conflict, in turn, affects these variables. The theory is tested with a system dynamics model that includes international as well as domestic violent conflict, calibrated to seven countries in southern Africa and six OECD countries. The results show a number of situations in which con flict is perpetuated in a cycle that is difficult to break. 2022-04-02T16:08:58Z 2022-04-02T16:08:58Z 1998-03 Article https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1727(199822/23)14:2/3%3C129::AID-SDR146%3E3.0.CO;2-6 https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141510 Wils, A., Kamiya, M. & Choucri, N. (1998). Threats to sustainability: Simulating conflict within and between nations. System Dynamics Review, 14, 129–162. en_US Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 United States http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/us/ application/pdf © 1998 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. |
| spellingShingle | Wils, Annababette Kamiya, Matilde Choucri, Nazli Threats to sustainability: Simulating conflict within and between nations |
| title | Threats to sustainability: Simulating conflict within and between nations |
| title_full | Threats to sustainability: Simulating conflict within and between nations |
| title_fullStr | Threats to sustainability: Simulating conflict within and between nations |
| title_full_unstemmed | Threats to sustainability: Simulating conflict within and between nations |
| title_short | Threats to sustainability: Simulating conflict within and between nations |
| title_sort | threats to sustainability simulating conflict within and between nations |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1727(199822/23)14:2/3%3C129::AID-SDR146%3E3.0.CO;2-6 https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141510 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT wilsannababette threatstosustainabilitysimulatingconflictwithinandbetweennations AT kamiyamatilde threatstosustainabilitysimulatingconflictwithinandbetweennations AT choucrinazli threatstosustainabilitysimulatingconflictwithinandbetweennations |