The impact of development priorities on power system expansion planning in sub-Saharan Africa
Abstract Sub-Saharan Africa faces unique barriers to electricity development due to the large proportion of the population that is un-electrified and the prevalence of rural populations. Typically, power system expansion planning models assume all potential consumers can be immediatel...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Springer Berlin Heidelberg
2022
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| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141898 |
| _version_ | 1811095300259971072 |
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| author | Musselman, Amelia Thomas, Valerie M. Nazzal, Dima Papageorgiou, Dimitri J. Venkatesh, Aranya Mallapragada, Dharik S. |
| author2 | MIT Energy Initiative |
| author_facet | MIT Energy Initiative Musselman, Amelia Thomas, Valerie M. Nazzal, Dima Papageorgiou, Dimitri J. Venkatesh, Aranya Mallapragada, Dharik S. |
| author_sort | Musselman, Amelia |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Abstract
Sub-Saharan Africa faces unique barriers to electricity development due to the large proportion of the population that is un-electrified and the prevalence of rural populations. Typically, power system expansion planning models assume all potential consumers can be immediately electrified. This assumption is unrealistic in sub-Saharan Africa, where electrification will likely be a gradual process over a number of years. Furthermore, since a large proportion of the population in sub-Saharan Africa is located in rural regions, the prioritization of these regions may impact how the grid develops. In this research, we develop a multi-period optimization model for power generation and transmission system expansion planning in sub-Saharan Africa. In contrast to existing models, which assume full electrification, we consider a variety of electrification policies and analyze the impact of varying the electrification rate and policy on the cost and resources selected for power system expansion. We test our model on a case study of Rwanda. We find that varying the year in which full electrification is reached has a larger impact on cost and generation capacity than varying the electrification policy does, although, when urban and rural regions are considered equitably, more rooftop solar is built. Varying the electrification policies has a larger impact on transmission expansion than on generation expansion and this impact is amplified when starting from zero initial system capacity rather than the original Rwanda system. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis shows that tightening the bounds on CO2eq emissions has a large impact on the generation portfolio and cost. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T16:15:03Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/141898 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T16:15:03Z |
| publishDate | 2022 |
| publisher | Springer Berlin Heidelberg |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1418982023-04-17T04:18:19Z The impact of development priorities on power system expansion planning in sub-Saharan Africa Musselman, Amelia Thomas, Valerie M. Nazzal, Dima Papageorgiou, Dimitri J. Venkatesh, Aranya Mallapragada, Dharik S. MIT Energy Initiative Abstract Sub-Saharan Africa faces unique barriers to electricity development due to the large proportion of the population that is un-electrified and the prevalence of rural populations. Typically, power system expansion planning models assume all potential consumers can be immediately electrified. This assumption is unrealistic in sub-Saharan Africa, where electrification will likely be a gradual process over a number of years. Furthermore, since a large proportion of the population in sub-Saharan Africa is located in rural regions, the prioritization of these regions may impact how the grid develops. In this research, we develop a multi-period optimization model for power generation and transmission system expansion planning in sub-Saharan Africa. In contrast to existing models, which assume full electrification, we consider a variety of electrification policies and analyze the impact of varying the electrification rate and policy on the cost and resources selected for power system expansion. We test our model on a case study of Rwanda. We find that varying the year in which full electrification is reached has a larger impact on cost and generation capacity than varying the electrification policy does, although, when urban and rural regions are considered equitably, more rooftop solar is built. Varying the electrification policies has a larger impact on transmission expansion than on generation expansion and this impact is amplified when starting from zero initial system capacity rather than the original Rwanda system. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis shows that tightening the bounds on CO2eq emissions has a large impact on the generation portfolio and cost. 2022-04-14T12:12:10Z 2022-04-14T12:12:10Z 2021-04-13 2022-04-14T03:34:10Z Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141898 Musselman, Amelia, Thomas, Valerie M., Nazzal, Dima, Papageorgiou, Dimitri J., Venkatesh, Aranya et al. 2021. "The impact of development priorities on power system expansion planning in sub-Saharan Africa." en https://doi.org/10.1007/s12667-021-00433-z Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature application/pdf Springer Berlin Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg |
| spellingShingle | Musselman, Amelia Thomas, Valerie M. Nazzal, Dima Papageorgiou, Dimitri J. Venkatesh, Aranya Mallapragada, Dharik S. The impact of development priorities on power system expansion planning in sub-Saharan Africa |
| title | The impact of development priorities on power system expansion planning in sub-Saharan Africa |
| title_full | The impact of development priorities on power system expansion planning in sub-Saharan Africa |
| title_fullStr | The impact of development priorities on power system expansion planning in sub-Saharan Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed | The impact of development priorities on power system expansion planning in sub-Saharan Africa |
| title_short | The impact of development priorities on power system expansion planning in sub-Saharan Africa |
| title_sort | impact of development priorities on power system expansion planning in sub saharan africa |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141898 |
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