Perspectives on Cobalt Supply through 2030 in the Face of Changing Demand
Copyright © 2020 American Chemical Society. Lithium-ion battery demand, particularly for electric vehicles, is projected to increase by over 300% throughout the next decade. With these expected increases in demand, cobalt (Co)-dependent technologies face the risk of significant impact from supply co...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
American Chemical Society (ACS)
2022
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| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142581 |
| _version_ | 1826198111036375040 |
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| author | Fu, Xinkai Beatty, Danielle N Gaustad, Gabrielle G Ceder, Gerbrand Roth, Richard Kirchain, Randolph E Bustamante, Michele Babbitt, Callie Olivetti, Elsa A |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Materials Science and Engineering |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Materials Science and Engineering Fu, Xinkai Beatty, Danielle N Gaustad, Gabrielle G Ceder, Gerbrand Roth, Richard Kirchain, Randolph E Bustamante, Michele Babbitt, Callie Olivetti, Elsa A |
| author_sort | Fu, Xinkai |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Copyright © 2020 American Chemical Society. Lithium-ion battery demand, particularly for electric vehicles, is projected to increase by over 300% throughout the next decade. With these expected increases in demand, cobalt (Co)-dependent technologies face the risk of significant impact from supply concentration and mining limitations in the short term. Increased extraction and secondary recovery form the basis of modeling scenarios that examine implications on Co supply to 2030. Demand for Co is estimated to range from 235 to 430 ktonnes in 2030. This upper bound on Co demand in 2030 corresponds to 280% of world refinery capacity in 2016. Supply from scheduled and unscheduled production as well as secondary production is estimated to range from 320 to 460 ktonnes. Our analysis suggests the following: (1) Co price will remain relatively stable in the short term, given that this range suggests even a supply surplus, (2) future Co supply will become more diversified geographically and mined more as a byproduct of nickel (Ni) over this period, and (3) for this demand to be met, attention should be paid to sustained investments in refined supply of Co and secondary recovery. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T10:59:00Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/142581 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T10:59:00Z |
| publishDate | 2022 |
| publisher | American Chemical Society (ACS) |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1425812023-02-09T15:53:46Z Perspectives on Cobalt Supply through 2030 in the Face of Changing Demand Fu, Xinkai Beatty, Danielle N Gaustad, Gabrielle G Ceder, Gerbrand Roth, Richard Kirchain, Randolph E Bustamante, Michele Babbitt, Callie Olivetti, Elsa A Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Materials Science and Engineering MIT Materials Research Laboratory Copyright © 2020 American Chemical Society. Lithium-ion battery demand, particularly for electric vehicles, is projected to increase by over 300% throughout the next decade. With these expected increases in demand, cobalt (Co)-dependent technologies face the risk of significant impact from supply concentration and mining limitations in the short term. Increased extraction and secondary recovery form the basis of modeling scenarios that examine implications on Co supply to 2030. Demand for Co is estimated to range from 235 to 430 ktonnes in 2030. This upper bound on Co demand in 2030 corresponds to 280% of world refinery capacity in 2016. Supply from scheduled and unscheduled production as well as secondary production is estimated to range from 320 to 460 ktonnes. Our analysis suggests the following: (1) Co price will remain relatively stable in the short term, given that this range suggests even a supply surplus, (2) future Co supply will become more diversified geographically and mined more as a byproduct of nickel (Ni) over this period, and (3) for this demand to be met, attention should be paid to sustained investments in refined supply of Co and secondary recovery. 2022-05-18T15:43:49Z 2022-05-18T15:43:49Z 2020 2022-05-18T15:41:01Z Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142581 Fu, Xinkai, Beatty, Danielle N, Gaustad, Gabrielle G, Ceder, Gerbrand, Roth, Richard et al. 2020. "Perspectives on Cobalt Supply through 2030 in the Face of Changing Demand." Environmental Science and Technology, 54 (5). en 10.1021/ACS.EST.9B04975 Environmental Science and Technology Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ application/pdf American Chemical Society (ACS) Other Repository |
| spellingShingle | Fu, Xinkai Beatty, Danielle N Gaustad, Gabrielle G Ceder, Gerbrand Roth, Richard Kirchain, Randolph E Bustamante, Michele Babbitt, Callie Olivetti, Elsa A Perspectives on Cobalt Supply through 2030 in the Face of Changing Demand |
| title | Perspectives on Cobalt Supply through 2030 in the Face of Changing Demand |
| title_full | Perspectives on Cobalt Supply through 2030 in the Face of Changing Demand |
| title_fullStr | Perspectives on Cobalt Supply through 2030 in the Face of Changing Demand |
| title_full_unstemmed | Perspectives on Cobalt Supply through 2030 in the Face of Changing Demand |
| title_short | Perspectives on Cobalt Supply through 2030 in the Face of Changing Demand |
| title_sort | perspectives on cobalt supply through 2030 in the face of changing demand |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142581 |
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