The Methodology of Bayesian Inference and Decision Making Applied to Extreme Hydrologic Events
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| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Published: |
Cambridge, Mass. : Ralph M. Parsons Laboratory for Water Resources and Hydrodynamics, Department of Civil Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
2022
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| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142970 |
| _version_ | 1811090249354313728 |
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| author | Wood, Eric F. Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio Schaake, Jr., John C. |
| author_facet | Wood, Eric F. Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio Schaake, Jr., John C. |
| author_sort | Wood, Eric F. |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Scanning notes: Disclaimer inserted for illegible graphs and text. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T14:39:52Z |
| id | mit-1721.1/142970 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T14:39:52Z |
| publishDate | 2022 |
| publisher | Cambridge, Mass. : Ralph M. Parsons Laboratory for Water Resources and Hydrodynamics, Department of Civil Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1429702022-06-14T03:12:25Z The Methodology of Bayesian Inference and Decision Making Applied to Extreme Hydrologic Events Wood, Eric F. Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio Schaake, Jr., John C. Scanning notes: Disclaimer inserted for illegible graphs and text. Project supported by Office of Water Resources Research grant no. 14-31-0001-9021 This study presents the methodology of Bayesian inference and decision making applied to extreme hydrologic events. Inference procedures must consider both the natural or 'modelled' uncertainty of the hydrologic process and the statistical uncertainty due to a lack of information. Two types of statistical uncertainty were considered in this study. The first type is the uncertainty in modelling the hydrologic process, and the second type is the uncertainty in the values of the model parameters. The uncertainty is reduced by considering prior sources of information (regional regression, theoretical flood frequency analysis or subjective assessment) and historical flood data. A 'Bayesian distribution' of flood discharges is developed that fully accounts for parameter uncertainty. In an analogous manner, model uncertainty is analyzed, which leads to a 'composite Bayesian distribution'. The uncertainty in flood frequency curves from rainfall-runoff models is also analyzed, due to the uncertainty in the parameters of the models. The Bayesian inference model is then applied to a Bayesian decision model, where the decision rule is the maximization of expected net monetary benefits. A case study of determining the optimal size of local flood protection for Woonsocket, Rhode Island, was considered, using realistic flood damage and cost functions. The results indicate that Bayesian inference procedures can be used to fully account for statistical uncertainty and that Bayesian decision procedures provide a rational approach for making decisions under uncertainty. 2022-06-13T13:06:13Z 2022-06-13T13:06:13Z 1974-01 178 https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142970 1047685 247080 R (Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil Engineering) ; 74-8. Report (Ralph M. Parsons Laboratory for Water Resources and Hydrodynamics) ; 178. application/pdf Cambridge, Mass. : Ralph M. Parsons Laboratory for Water Resources and Hydrodynamics, Department of Civil Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| spellingShingle | Wood, Eric F. Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio Schaake, Jr., John C. The Methodology of Bayesian Inference and Decision Making Applied to Extreme Hydrologic Events |
| title | The Methodology of Bayesian Inference and Decision Making Applied to Extreme Hydrologic Events |
| title_full | The Methodology of Bayesian Inference and Decision Making Applied to Extreme Hydrologic Events |
| title_fullStr | The Methodology of Bayesian Inference and Decision Making Applied to Extreme Hydrologic Events |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Methodology of Bayesian Inference and Decision Making Applied to Extreme Hydrologic Events |
| title_short | The Methodology of Bayesian Inference and Decision Making Applied to Extreme Hydrologic Events |
| title_sort | methodology of bayesian inference and decision making applied to extreme hydrologic events |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142970 |
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