Evaluating efficacy of indoor non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 outbreaks with a coupled spatial-SIR agent-based simulation framework
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Contagious respiratory diseases, such as COVID-19, depend on sufficiently prolonged exposures for the successful transmission of the underlying pathogen. It is important that organizations evaluate the efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interven...
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Format: | Article |
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Springer Science and Business Media LLC
2022
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/143455 |
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author | Gunaratne, Chathika Reyes, Rene Hemberg, Erik O’Reilly, Una-May |
author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory |
author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory Gunaratne, Chathika Reyes, Rene Hemberg, Erik O’Reilly, Una-May |
author_sort | Gunaratne, Chathika |
collection | MIT |
description | <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Contagious respiratory diseases, such as COVID-19, depend on sufficiently prolonged exposures for the successful transmission of the underlying pathogen. It is important that organizations evaluate the efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions aimed at mitigating viral transmission among their personnel. We have developed a operational risk assessment simulation framework that couples a spatial agent-based model of movement with an agent-based SIR model to assess the relative risks of different intervention strategies. By applying our model on MIT’s Stata center, we assess the impacts of three possible dimensions of intervention: one-way vs unrestricted movement, population size allowed onsite, and frequency of leaving designated work location for breaks. We find that there is no significant impact made by one-way movement restrictions over unrestricted movement. Instead, we find that reducing the frequency at which individuals leave their workstations combined with lowering the number of individuals admitted below the current recommendations lowers the likelihood of highly connected individuals within the contact networks that emerge, which in turn lowers the overall risk of infection. We discover three classes of possible interventions based on their epidemiological effects. By assuming a direct relationship between data on secondary attack rates and transmissibility in the agent-based SIR model, we compare relative infection risk of four respiratory illnesses, MERS, SARS, COVID-19, and Measles, within the simulated area, and recommend appropriate intervention guidelines.</jats:p> |
first_indexed | 2024-09-23T09:36:44Z |
format | Article |
id | mit-1721.1/143455 |
institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
last_indexed | 2024-09-23T09:36:44Z |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Springer Science and Business Media LLC |
record_format | dspace |
spelling | mit-1721.1/1434552023-02-01T21:33:55Z Evaluating efficacy of indoor non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 outbreaks with a coupled spatial-SIR agent-based simulation framework Gunaratne, Chathika Reyes, Rene Hemberg, Erik O’Reilly, Una-May Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Contagious respiratory diseases, such as COVID-19, depend on sufficiently prolonged exposures for the successful transmission of the underlying pathogen. It is important that organizations evaluate the efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions aimed at mitigating viral transmission among their personnel. We have developed a operational risk assessment simulation framework that couples a spatial agent-based model of movement with an agent-based SIR model to assess the relative risks of different intervention strategies. By applying our model on MIT’s Stata center, we assess the impacts of three possible dimensions of intervention: one-way vs unrestricted movement, population size allowed onsite, and frequency of leaving designated work location for breaks. We find that there is no significant impact made by one-way movement restrictions over unrestricted movement. Instead, we find that reducing the frequency at which individuals leave their workstations combined with lowering the number of individuals admitted below the current recommendations lowers the likelihood of highly connected individuals within the contact networks that emerge, which in turn lowers the overall risk of infection. We discover three classes of possible interventions based on their epidemiological effects. By assuming a direct relationship between data on secondary attack rates and transmissibility in the agent-based SIR model, we compare relative infection risk of four respiratory illnesses, MERS, SARS, COVID-19, and Measles, within the simulated area, and recommend appropriate intervention guidelines.</jats:p> 2022-06-15T18:15:50Z 2022-06-15T18:15:50Z 2022-04-13 Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 2045-2322 https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/143455 Gunaratne, Chathika, Reyes, Rene, Hemberg, Erik and O’Reilly, Una-May. 2022. "Evaluating efficacy of indoor non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 outbreaks with a coupled spatial-SIR agent-based simulation framework." 12 (1). 10.1038/s41598-022-09942-y Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ application/pdf Springer Science and Business Media LLC Scientific Reports |
spellingShingle | Gunaratne, Chathika Reyes, Rene Hemberg, Erik O’Reilly, Una-May Evaluating efficacy of indoor non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 outbreaks with a coupled spatial-SIR agent-based simulation framework |
title | Evaluating efficacy of indoor non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 outbreaks with a coupled spatial-SIR agent-based simulation framework |
title_full | Evaluating efficacy of indoor non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 outbreaks with a coupled spatial-SIR agent-based simulation framework |
title_fullStr | Evaluating efficacy of indoor non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 outbreaks with a coupled spatial-SIR agent-based simulation framework |
title_full_unstemmed | Evaluating efficacy of indoor non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 outbreaks with a coupled spatial-SIR agent-based simulation framework |
title_short | Evaluating efficacy of indoor non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 outbreaks with a coupled spatial-SIR agent-based simulation framework |
title_sort | evaluating efficacy of indoor non pharmaceutical interventions against covid 19 outbreaks with a coupled spatial sir agent based simulation framework |
url | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/143455 |
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