Evaluating the Time of Emergence of Heat Waves using Different Definitions
Heat extremes, such as heat waves, are characterized by human health effects, increased mortality, and ecosystem-wide impacts. Previous studies of heat waves do not define when and where heat wave frequency will be distinguishable from the background frequency of heat waves in the coming century, an...
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| Format: | Thesis |
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Massachusetts Institute of Technology
2022
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| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/145057 |
| _version_ | 1826194634901028864 |
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| author | Padalino, Christine M. |
| author2 | Solomon, Susan |
| author_facet | Solomon, Susan Padalino, Christine M. |
| author_sort | Padalino, Christine M. |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Heat extremes, such as heat waves, are characterized by human health effects, increased mortality, and ecosystem-wide impacts. Previous studies of heat waves do not define when and where heat wave frequency will be distinguishable from the background frequency of heat waves in the coming century, and previous studies of heat extremes do not analyze how varying the definition of heat waves contribute to emergence. Using daily resolution of 10 CMIP6 era General Circulation Models forced by the SSP2-4.5 warming scenario, we evaluate the frequency of two definitions presented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of heat waves in a reference period and in the future climate to determine the “time of emergence”, or the time when the frequency of heat waves becomes perceptibly different from the background frequency. For heat waves that exceed 5°C above the historical climatology, time of emergence is earliest in high latitude regions and is most correlated with the signal. For heat waves that exceed the 90th percentile of the historical climatology, time of emergence is earliest in low latitude regions and is most correlated with the signal to noise ratio. Identifying the time of emergence for the frequency of heat waves can contribute to potential mitigation policies and techniques that are region and time specific. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T09:58:58Z |
| format | Thesis |
| id | mit-1721.1/145057 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T09:58:58Z |
| publishDate | 2022 |
| publisher | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1450572022-08-30T03:52:20Z Evaluating the Time of Emergence of Heat Waves using Different Definitions Padalino, Christine M. Solomon, Susan Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Heat extremes, such as heat waves, are characterized by human health effects, increased mortality, and ecosystem-wide impacts. Previous studies of heat waves do not define when and where heat wave frequency will be distinguishable from the background frequency of heat waves in the coming century, and previous studies of heat extremes do not analyze how varying the definition of heat waves contribute to emergence. Using daily resolution of 10 CMIP6 era General Circulation Models forced by the SSP2-4.5 warming scenario, we evaluate the frequency of two definitions presented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of heat waves in a reference period and in the future climate to determine the “time of emergence”, or the time when the frequency of heat waves becomes perceptibly different from the background frequency. For heat waves that exceed 5°C above the historical climatology, time of emergence is earliest in high latitude regions and is most correlated with the signal. For heat waves that exceed the 90th percentile of the historical climatology, time of emergence is earliest in low latitude regions and is most correlated with the signal to noise ratio. Identifying the time of emergence for the frequency of heat waves can contribute to potential mitigation policies and techniques that are region and time specific. S.B. 2022-08-29T16:30:04Z 2022-08-29T16:30:04Z 2022-05 2022-06-17T17:25:07.045Z Thesis https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/145057 In Copyright - Educational Use Permitted Copyright MIT http://rightsstatements.org/page/InC-EDU/1.0/ application/pdf Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| spellingShingle | Padalino, Christine M. Evaluating the Time of Emergence of Heat Waves using Different Definitions |
| title | Evaluating the Time of Emergence of Heat Waves using Different Definitions |
| title_full | Evaluating the Time of Emergence of Heat Waves using Different Definitions |
| title_fullStr | Evaluating the Time of Emergence of Heat Waves using Different Definitions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluating the Time of Emergence of Heat Waves using Different Definitions |
| title_short | Evaluating the Time of Emergence of Heat Waves using Different Definitions |
| title_sort | evaluating the time of emergence of heat waves using different definitions |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/145057 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT padalinochristinem evaluatingthetimeofemergenceofheatwavesusingdifferentdefinitions |