Reanalysis-driven simulations may overestimate persistent contrail formation by 100%–250%
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p>Model-based estimates of aviation’s climate impacts have found that contrails contribute 36%–81% of aviation’s instantaneous radiative forcing. These estimates depend on the accuracy of meteorological data provided by reanal...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2022
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| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/145280 |
| _version_ | 1826198658732785664 |
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| author | Agarwal, Akshat Meijer, Vincent R Eastham, Sebastian D Speth, Raymond L Barrett, Steven RH |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Laboratory for Aviation and the Environment |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Laboratory for Aviation and the Environment Agarwal, Akshat Meijer, Vincent R Eastham, Sebastian D Speth, Raymond L Barrett, Steven RH |
| author_sort | Agarwal, Akshat |
| collection | MIT |
| description | <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title>
<jats:p>Model-based estimates of aviation’s climate impacts have found that contrails contribute 36%–81% of aviation’s instantaneous radiative forcing. These estimates depend on the accuracy of meteorological data provided by reanalyses like ECMWF Reanalysis 5th Generation (ERA5) and Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications V2 (MERRA-2). Using data from 793 044 radiosondes, we find persistent contrails forming at cruise altitudes in 30° N–60° S are overestimated by factors of 2.0 and 3.5 for ERA5 and MERRA-2, respectively. Seasonal and inter-annual trends are well-reproduced by both models (R<jats:sup>2</jats:sup> = 0.79 and 0.74). We also find a contrail lifetime metric is overestimated by 17% in ERA5 and 45% in MERRA-2. Finally, the reanalyses incorrectly identify individual regions that could form persistent contrails 87% and 52% of the time, respectively. These results suggest that contrail models currently overestimate the number and lifetime of persistent contrails. Additional observations are needed for future models in order to provide locally accurate estimates of contrails or to support mitigation strategies.</jats:p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T11:08:12Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/145280 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T11:08:12Z |
| publishDate | 2022 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1452802023-04-14T19:56:59Z Reanalysis-driven simulations may overestimate persistent contrail formation by 100%–250% Agarwal, Akshat Meijer, Vincent R Eastham, Sebastian D Speth, Raymond L Barrett, Steven RH Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Laboratory for Aviation and the Environment Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Joint Program on the Science & Policy of Global Change <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p>Model-based estimates of aviation’s climate impacts have found that contrails contribute 36%–81% of aviation’s instantaneous radiative forcing. These estimates depend on the accuracy of meteorological data provided by reanalyses like ECMWF Reanalysis 5th Generation (ERA5) and Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications V2 (MERRA-2). Using data from 793 044 radiosondes, we find persistent contrails forming at cruise altitudes in 30° N–60° S are overestimated by factors of 2.0 and 3.5 for ERA5 and MERRA-2, respectively. Seasonal and inter-annual trends are well-reproduced by both models (R<jats:sup>2</jats:sup> = 0.79 and 0.74). We also find a contrail lifetime metric is overestimated by 17% in ERA5 and 45% in MERRA-2. Finally, the reanalyses incorrectly identify individual regions that could form persistent contrails 87% and 52% of the time, respectively. These results suggest that contrail models currently overestimate the number and lifetime of persistent contrails. Additional observations are needed for future models in order to provide locally accurate estimates of contrails or to support mitigation strategies.</jats:p> 2022-09-07T15:39:00Z 2022-09-07T15:39:00Z 2022 2022-09-07T15:33:46Z Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/145280 Agarwal, Akshat, Meijer, Vincent R, Eastham, Sebastian D, Speth, Raymond L and Barrett, Steven RH. 2022. "Reanalysis-driven simulations may overestimate persistent contrail formation by 100%–250%." Environmental Research Letters, 17 (1). en 10.1088/1748-9326/AC38D9 Environmental Research Letters Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ application/pdf IOP Publishing IOP Publishing |
| spellingShingle | Agarwal, Akshat Meijer, Vincent R Eastham, Sebastian D Speth, Raymond L Barrett, Steven RH Reanalysis-driven simulations may overestimate persistent contrail formation by 100%–250% |
| title | Reanalysis-driven simulations may overestimate persistent contrail formation by 100%–250% |
| title_full | Reanalysis-driven simulations may overestimate persistent contrail formation by 100%–250% |
| title_fullStr | Reanalysis-driven simulations may overestimate persistent contrail formation by 100%–250% |
| title_full_unstemmed | Reanalysis-driven simulations may overestimate persistent contrail formation by 100%–250% |
| title_short | Reanalysis-driven simulations may overestimate persistent contrail formation by 100%–250% |
| title_sort | reanalysis driven simulations may overestimate persistent contrail formation by 100 250 |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/145280 |
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