Should we allocate more COVID-19 vaccine doses to non-vaccinated individuals?
<jats:p>Following the approval by the FDA of two COVID-19 vaccines, which are administered in two doses three to four weeks apart, we simulate the effects of various vaccine distribution policies on the cumulative number of infections and deaths in the United States in the presence of shocks t...
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| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Article |
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2022
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| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/145512 |
| _version_ | 1811090944854851584 |
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| author | Ben Chaouch, Zied Lo, Andrew W. Wong, Chi Heem |
| author2 | Sloan School of Management. Laboratory for Financial Engineering |
| author_facet | Sloan School of Management. Laboratory for Financial Engineering Ben Chaouch, Zied Lo, Andrew W. Wong, Chi Heem |
| author_sort | Ben Chaouch, Zied |
| collection | MIT |
| description | <jats:p>Following the approval by the FDA of two COVID-19 vaccines, which are administered in two doses three to four weeks apart, we simulate the effects of various vaccine distribution policies on the cumulative number of infections and deaths in the United States in the presence of shocks to the supply of vaccines. Our forecasts suggest that allocating more than 50% of available doses to individuals who have not received their first dose can significantly increase the number of lives saved and significantly reduce the number of COVID-19 infections. We find that a 50% allocation saves on average 33% more lives, and prevents on average 32% more infections relative to a policy that guarantees a second dose within the recommended time frame to all individuals who have already received their first dose. In fact, in the presence of supply shocks, we find that the former policy would save on average 8, 793 lives and prevents on average 607, 100 infections while the latter policy would save on average 6, 609 lives and prevents on average 460, 743 infections.</jats:p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T14:54:28Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/145512 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T14:54:28Z |
| publishDate | 2022 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1455122022-09-29T11:22:05Z Should we allocate more COVID-19 vaccine doses to non-vaccinated individuals? Ben Chaouch, Zied Lo, Andrew W. Wong, Chi Heem Sloan School of Management. Laboratory for Financial Engineering Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory Sloan School of Management <jats:p>Following the approval by the FDA of two COVID-19 vaccines, which are administered in two doses three to four weeks apart, we simulate the effects of various vaccine distribution policies on the cumulative number of infections and deaths in the United States in the presence of shocks to the supply of vaccines. Our forecasts suggest that allocating more than 50% of available doses to individuals who have not received their first dose can significantly increase the number of lives saved and significantly reduce the number of COVID-19 infections. We find that a 50% allocation saves on average 33% more lives, and prevents on average 32% more infections relative to a policy that guarantees a second dose within the recommended time frame to all individuals who have already received their first dose. In fact, in the presence of supply shocks, we find that the former policy would save on average 8, 793 lives and prevents on average 607, 100 infections while the latter policy would save on average 6, 609 lives and prevents on average 460, 743 infections.</jats:p> 2022-09-20T12:24:19Z 2022-09-20T12:24:19Z 2022-07-01 Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 2767-3375 https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/145512 Ben Chaouch, Zied, Lo, Andrew W. and Wong, Chi Heem. 2022. "Should we allocate more COVID-19 vaccine doses to non-vaccinated individuals?." 2 (7). 10.1371/journal.pgph.0000498 Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ application/pdf Public Library of Science (PLoS) PLoS |
| spellingShingle | Ben Chaouch, Zied Lo, Andrew W. Wong, Chi Heem Should we allocate more COVID-19 vaccine doses to non-vaccinated individuals? |
| title | Should we allocate more COVID-19 vaccine doses to non-vaccinated individuals? |
| title_full | Should we allocate more COVID-19 vaccine doses to non-vaccinated individuals? |
| title_fullStr | Should we allocate more COVID-19 vaccine doses to non-vaccinated individuals? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Should we allocate more COVID-19 vaccine doses to non-vaccinated individuals? |
| title_short | Should we allocate more COVID-19 vaccine doses to non-vaccinated individuals? |
| title_sort | should we allocate more covid 19 vaccine doses to non vaccinated individuals |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/145512 |
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