A Mixed-Methods Approach to Force Estimation in Military Operations Other Than War
This thesis presents a new method for estimating force size and composition for Military Operations Other than War. While military planners have tools for planning these kinds of operations, they are largely inaccessible or unsuitable for civilian use. The most common tool for force estimation in MO...
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| Format: | Thesis |
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Massachusetts Institute of Technology
2023
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| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/147231 |
| _version_ | 1826201745475239936 |
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| author | Rippy, Julian T. |
| author2 | Lin-Greenberg, Erik |
| author_facet | Lin-Greenberg, Erik Rippy, Julian T. |
| author_sort | Rippy, Julian T. |
| collection | MIT |
| description | This thesis presents a new method for estimating force size and composition for Military Operations Other than War. While military planners have tools for planning these kinds of operations, they are largely inaccessible or unsuitable for civilian use. The most common tool for force estimation in MOOTW, force ratios, is inaccurate and based on questionable assumptions. The new method presented here, operational inference, is a mixed-methods approach which uses a multivariate distance measure in order to determine which military operations are similar to each other. Using this information, a researcher can identify similar cases for focused comparison, allowing for both qualitative and quantitative improvements in force estimates.
The utility of the method is demonstrated for two separate forms of MOOTW. It is applied to humanitarian military intervention by estimating a force for a hypothetical EU intervention in Libya. It is then applied to noncombatant evacuation operations by estimating forces required for the American evacuation of Afghanistan in August 2021, showing its ability to mimic real-world decisionmaking. The method produced estimates that were more accurate than those produced by force ratio methods, and in both cases the method and the campaign analysis it enabled are able to answer important, policy-relevant questions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T11:56:03Z |
| format | Thesis |
| id | mit-1721.1/147231 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T11:56:03Z |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| publisher | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1472312023-01-20T03:36:07Z A Mixed-Methods Approach to Force Estimation in Military Operations Other Than War Rippy, Julian T. Lin-Greenberg, Erik Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Political Science This thesis presents a new method for estimating force size and composition for Military Operations Other than War. While military planners have tools for planning these kinds of operations, they are largely inaccessible or unsuitable for civilian use. The most common tool for force estimation in MOOTW, force ratios, is inaccurate and based on questionable assumptions. The new method presented here, operational inference, is a mixed-methods approach which uses a multivariate distance measure in order to determine which military operations are similar to each other. Using this information, a researcher can identify similar cases for focused comparison, allowing for both qualitative and quantitative improvements in force estimates. The utility of the method is demonstrated for two separate forms of MOOTW. It is applied to humanitarian military intervention by estimating a force for a hypothetical EU intervention in Libya. It is then applied to noncombatant evacuation operations by estimating forces required for the American evacuation of Afghanistan in August 2021, showing its ability to mimic real-world decisionmaking. The method produced estimates that were more accurate than those produced by force ratio methods, and in both cases the method and the campaign analysis it enabled are able to answer important, policy-relevant questions. S.M. 2023-01-19T18:39:03Z 2023-01-19T18:39:03Z 2022-09 2022-10-20T14:26:07.688Z Thesis https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/147231 0000-0002-5160-7684 Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0) Copyright retained by author(s) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ application/pdf Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| spellingShingle | Rippy, Julian T. A Mixed-Methods Approach to Force Estimation in Military Operations Other Than War |
| title | A Mixed-Methods Approach to Force Estimation in Military Operations Other Than War |
| title_full | A Mixed-Methods Approach to Force Estimation in Military Operations Other Than War |
| title_fullStr | A Mixed-Methods Approach to Force Estimation in Military Operations Other Than War |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Mixed-Methods Approach to Force Estimation in Military Operations Other Than War |
| title_short | A Mixed-Methods Approach to Force Estimation in Military Operations Other Than War |
| title_sort | mixed methods approach to force estimation in military operations other than war |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/147231 |
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