Bayesian assessment of chlorofluorocarbon (CFC), hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) and halon banks suggest large reservoirs still present in old equipment
<jats:p>Abstract. Halocarbons contained in equipment such as air conditioners, fire extinguishers, and foams continue to be emitted after production has ceased. These “banks” within equipment and applications are thus potential sources of future emissions, and must be carefully accounted for...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus GmbH
2023
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| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/148245 |
| _version_ | 1826198012686237696 |
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| author | Lickley, Megan Jeramaz Daniel, John S Fleming, Eric L Reimann, Stefan Solomon, Susan |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Lickley, Megan Jeramaz Daniel, John S Fleming, Eric L Reimann, Stefan Solomon, Susan |
| author_sort | Lickley, Megan Jeramaz |
| collection | MIT |
| description | <jats:p>Abstract. Halocarbons contained in equipment such as air conditioners, fire
extinguishers, and foams continue to be emitted after production has ceased. These “banks” within equipment and applications are thus potential sources of future emissions, and must be carefully accounted for in order to differentiate nascent and potentially illegal production from legal banked emissions. Here, we build on a probabilistic Bayesian model, previously developed to quantify chlorofluorocarbon (CFC-11, CFC-12, and CFC-113) banks and their emissions. We extend this model to a suite of banked chemicals regulated under the Montreal Protocol (hydrochlorofluorocarbon, HCFC-22, HCFC-141b, and HCFC-142b, halon 1211 and halon 1301, and CFC-114 and CFC-115) along with CFC-11, CFC-12, and CFC-113 in order to quantify a fuller range of ozone-depleting substance (ODS) banks by chemical and equipment type. We show that if atmospheric lifetime and prior assumptions are accurate, banks are most likely larger than previous international assessments suggest, and that total production has probably been higher than reported. We identify that banks of greatest climate-relevance, as determined by global warming potential weighting, are largely concentrated in CFC-11 foams and CFC-12 and HCFC-22 non-hermetic refrigeration. Halons, CFC-11, and CFC-12 banks dominate the banks weighted by ozone depletion potential (ODP). Thus, we identify and quantify the uncertainties in substantial banks whose future emissions will contribute to future global warming and delay ozone-hole recovery if left unrecovered.
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| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T10:57:30Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/148245 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T10:57:30Z |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| publisher | Copernicus GmbH |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1482452023-03-01T03:35:30Z Bayesian assessment of chlorofluorocarbon (CFC), hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) and halon banks suggest large reservoirs still present in old equipment Lickley, Megan Jeramaz Daniel, John S Fleming, Eric L Reimann, Stefan Solomon, Susan Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences <jats:p>Abstract. Halocarbons contained in equipment such as air conditioners, fire extinguishers, and foams continue to be emitted after production has ceased. These “banks” within equipment and applications are thus potential sources of future emissions, and must be carefully accounted for in order to differentiate nascent and potentially illegal production from legal banked emissions. Here, we build on a probabilistic Bayesian model, previously developed to quantify chlorofluorocarbon (CFC-11, CFC-12, and CFC-113) banks and their emissions. We extend this model to a suite of banked chemicals regulated under the Montreal Protocol (hydrochlorofluorocarbon, HCFC-22, HCFC-141b, and HCFC-142b, halon 1211 and halon 1301, and CFC-114 and CFC-115) along with CFC-11, CFC-12, and CFC-113 in order to quantify a fuller range of ozone-depleting substance (ODS) banks by chemical and equipment type. We show that if atmospheric lifetime and prior assumptions are accurate, banks are most likely larger than previous international assessments suggest, and that total production has probably been higher than reported. We identify that banks of greatest climate-relevance, as determined by global warming potential weighting, are largely concentrated in CFC-11 foams and CFC-12 and HCFC-22 non-hermetic refrigeration. Halons, CFC-11, and CFC-12 banks dominate the banks weighted by ozone depletion potential (ODP). Thus, we identify and quantify the uncertainties in substantial banks whose future emissions will contribute to future global warming and delay ozone-hole recovery if left unrecovered. </jats:p> 2023-02-28T17:47:37Z 2023-02-28T17:47:37Z 2022 2023-02-28T17:41:52Z Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/148245 Lickley, Megan Jeramaz, Daniel, John S, Fleming, Eric L, Reimann, Stefan and Solomon, Susan. 2022. "Bayesian assessment of chlorofluorocarbon (CFC), hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) and halon banks suggest large reservoirs still present in old equipment." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 22 (17). en 10.5194/ACP-22-11125-2022 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ application/pdf Copernicus GmbH Copernicus Publications |
| spellingShingle | Lickley, Megan Jeramaz Daniel, John S Fleming, Eric L Reimann, Stefan Solomon, Susan Bayesian assessment of chlorofluorocarbon (CFC), hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) and halon banks suggest large reservoirs still present in old equipment |
| title | Bayesian assessment of chlorofluorocarbon (CFC), hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) and halon banks suggest large reservoirs still present in old equipment |
| title_full | Bayesian assessment of chlorofluorocarbon (CFC), hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) and halon banks suggest large reservoirs still present in old equipment |
| title_fullStr | Bayesian assessment of chlorofluorocarbon (CFC), hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) and halon banks suggest large reservoirs still present in old equipment |
| title_full_unstemmed | Bayesian assessment of chlorofluorocarbon (CFC), hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) and halon banks suggest large reservoirs still present in old equipment |
| title_short | Bayesian assessment of chlorofluorocarbon (CFC), hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) and halon banks suggest large reservoirs still present in old equipment |
| title_sort | bayesian assessment of chlorofluorocarbon cfc hydrochlorofluorocarbon hcfc and halon banks suggest large reservoirs still present in old equipment |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/148245 |
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