Crises Learning Under Diagnosticity
We analyse ways in which diagnostic expectation in macro forecasting contaminates posterior inference and interferes with Bayesian parameter learning. Conversely, we study scenarios where parameter uncertainty dampens or magnifies extrapolation. We characterise two unique implications of such an int...
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| Format: | Thesis |
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Massachusetts Institute of Technology
2023
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| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/150088 |