Assessing compounding climate-related stresses and development pathways on the power sector in the central U.S.
Future configurations of the power system in the central region of the USA are dependent on relative costs of alternative power generation technologies, energy and environmental policies, and multiple climate-induced stresses. Higher demand in the summer months combined with compounding supply shock...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Springer Netherlands
2024
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| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/153925 |
| _version_ | 1811095907450486784 |
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| author | Gurgel, Angelo Costa Reilly, John Morris, Jennifer Schlosser, C. Adam Gao, Xiang Yuan, Mei Tapia-Ahumada, Karen |
| author_facet | Gurgel, Angelo Costa Reilly, John Morris, Jennifer Schlosser, C. Adam Gao, Xiang Yuan, Mei Tapia-Ahumada, Karen |
| author_sort | Gurgel, Angelo Costa |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Future configurations of the power system in the central region of the USA are dependent on relative costs of alternative power generation technologies, energy and environmental policies, and multiple climate-induced stresses. Higher demand in the summer months combined with compounding supply shocks in several power generation technologies can potentially cause a “perfect storm” leading to failure of the power system. Potential future climate stress must be incorporated in investment decisions and energy system planning and operation. We assess how projected future climate impacts on the power system would affect alternative pathways for the electricity sector considering a broad range of generation technologies and changes in demand. We calculate a “potential supply gap” metric for each pathway, system component, and sub-region of the US Heartland due to climate-induced effects on electricity demand and power generation. Potential supply gaps range from 5% in the North Central region under mild changes in climate to 21% in the Lakes-Mid Atlantic region under more severe climate change. We find increases in electricity demand to be more important in determining the size of the potential supply gap than stresses on power generation, while larger shares of renewables in the power system contribute to lower supply gaps. Our results provide a first step toward considering systemic climate impacts that may require changes in managing the grid or on potential additional capacity/reserves that may be needed. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T16:33:26Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/153925 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-24T16:34:11Z |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publisher | Springer Netherlands |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1539252024-09-23T04:08:18Z Assessing compounding climate-related stresses and development pathways on the power sector in the central U.S. Gurgel, Angelo Costa Reilly, John Morris, Jennifer Schlosser, C. Adam Gao, Xiang Yuan, Mei Tapia-Ahumada, Karen Ecology Global and Planetary Change Future configurations of the power system in the central region of the USA are dependent on relative costs of alternative power generation technologies, energy and environmental policies, and multiple climate-induced stresses. Higher demand in the summer months combined with compounding supply shocks in several power generation technologies can potentially cause a “perfect storm” leading to failure of the power system. Potential future climate stress must be incorporated in investment decisions and energy system planning and operation. We assess how projected future climate impacts on the power system would affect alternative pathways for the electricity sector considering a broad range of generation technologies and changes in demand. We calculate a “potential supply gap” metric for each pathway, system component, and sub-region of the US Heartland due to climate-induced effects on electricity demand and power generation. Potential supply gaps range from 5% in the North Central region under mild changes in climate to 21% in the Lakes-Mid Atlantic region under more severe climate change. We find increases in electricity demand to be more important in determining the size of the potential supply gap than stresses on power generation, while larger shares of renewables in the power system contribute to lower supply gaps. Our results provide a first step toward considering systemic climate impacts that may require changes in managing the grid or on potential additional capacity/reserves that may be needed. 2024-03-25T14:43:46Z 2024-03-25T14:43:46Z 2024-03-18 2024-03-24T04:17:55Z Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 1381-2386 1573-1596 https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/153925 Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. 2024 Mar 18;29(4):27 PUBLISHER_CC en 10.1007/s11027-024-10119-3 Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Creative Commons Attribution https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ The Author(s) application/pdf Springer Netherlands Springer Netherlands |
| spellingShingle | Ecology Global and Planetary Change Gurgel, Angelo Costa Reilly, John Morris, Jennifer Schlosser, C. Adam Gao, Xiang Yuan, Mei Tapia-Ahumada, Karen Assessing compounding climate-related stresses and development pathways on the power sector in the central U.S. |
| title | Assessing compounding climate-related stresses and development pathways on the power sector in the central U.S. |
| title_full | Assessing compounding climate-related stresses and development pathways on the power sector in the central U.S. |
| title_fullStr | Assessing compounding climate-related stresses and development pathways on the power sector in the central U.S. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing compounding climate-related stresses and development pathways on the power sector in the central U.S. |
| title_short | Assessing compounding climate-related stresses and development pathways on the power sector in the central U.S. |
| title_sort | assessing compounding climate related stresses and development pathways on the power sector in the central u s |
| topic | Ecology Global and Planetary Change |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/153925 |
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